## SHOW NOTES

**Key Leadership & Corporate News**

- Constellation Brands CEO transition: Nicholas Fink succeeds Bill Newlands effective April 13, 2026

- Heineken announces 5,000-6,000 job cuts (7% of workforce) over two years; targets €400-500M annual savings

- AB InBev FY25 EBITDA at $21.2B; guides FY26 organic growth of 4-8%

- Coca-Cola consolidates Red Tree Beverages and BodyArmor under North American Operating Unit

**M&A Activity**

- E.&J. Gallo acquiring Four Roses Bourbon from Kirin for $775M

- Crimson Wine Group acquires Raeburn brand (~250K cases) from Purple Brands

- Carolina Premium Beverage and United Beverages NC merging to form 18M-case United Carolina Beverages

**Financial Distress & Restructuring**

- Uncle Nearest: $164M total debt; receiver alleges $30M revenue overstatement, unpaid taxes since 2018

- Stoli USA: Judge orders Chapter 11 trustees for orderly asset sale

- RNDC layoffs continue (~100 in FL, ~40 in TX); potential sale of 7 markets to Reyes Beverage Group

**Market Performance (4 weeks ending Jan. 31)**

- Total Alcohol: $7.2B (+0.6% dollars); 136M cases (-0.2% volume)

- RTD: +8.8% dollars, +3.0% volume

- Beer: +0.9% dollars, -0.4% volume

- Wine: +0.3% dollars, -1.4% volume

- Spirits: -2.8% dollars, -1.3% volume

- NA Beer: +7.0% dollars, +5.7% volume

**Wine Industry Reset**

- DTC wine: 5.4M cases, $3.7B in 2025 (down 15% volume, 6% value YoY)

- California vineyard removals: ~40,000 additional acres expected in 2026

- Average DTC bottle price: $56.78 (up 11%)

**Trade & Tariffs**

- US Scotch exports down 4% value, 9.2% volume in 2025

- Post-April tariff (10%): May-December shipments down 15% volume, 7% value

- Mexico tequila oversupply: ~500M liters unsold; agave prices collapsed from 30-32 pesos/kg to 2-5 pesos/kg

**Consumer Trends**

- Dry January: 88% adherence among participants; 17% overall participation (Gen Z 32%, Millennials 26%)

- Oral GLP-1 (Wegovy pill) availability in 2026 may accelerate medication adoption

- World Cup 2026: 58% plan to follow; 49% say beer will be drink of choice at bars/restaurants

**Regulatory Watch**

- Supreme Court case challenging Arizona's in-state retailer requirement for wine shipping

- New York grocery wine/spirits legislation gains momentum

- Chicago liquor tax changes effective March 1, 2026

- Heaven Hill defending Lunazul "100% agave" class action

**Key Takeaways**

1. Growth is increasingly mix-led—RTDs, NA, cider, and select imports carrying the market

2. Distribution restructuring is a first-order commercial variable affecting supplier strategy

3. Whiskey oversupply creating M&A opportunities and production adjustments

4. Wine's reset is structural—supply, DTC, and regulatory changes converging

5. Moderation is normalizing beyond January with potential GLP-1 acceleration