Why is abundant global capital is not translating into stronger productive investment, and what role the G20 can play in shaping a more resilient and sustainable capital flows framework in an increasingly fragmented global economy?

Global finance has demonstrated considerable resilience despite persistent economic uncertainty, geopolitical tension and worsening debt dynamics. Capital flows and investment remain central to economic performance - particularly in emerging and developing economies.

Yet assets held by non-bank financial institutions have expanded rapidly, reaching an estimated US$250 trillion, around 400% of GDP in advanced economies. At the same time, real investment as a share of GDP across many emerging and advanced economies has stagnated or declined since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Persistent frictions, coordination failures and mispriced risk continue to constrain capital mobilisation for productivity-enhancing investment. Closing this gap is critical for long-term growth and sustainable development.

If capital is abundant, why is productive investment lagging? And in an increasingly fragmented global economy, what role can the G20 play in shaping a more resilient and sustainable capital flows framework?

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Ali Cakiroglou, Director of Emerging Markets Research, HSBC
• Marcello Carvalho, Former Global Chief Economist, BNP Paribas
• Phyllis Papadavid, Senior Research Fellow, International Economic Development Group, ODI Global

Related resources

• Towards a G20 framework for capital flows to EMDEs: informing the UK Presidency (Expert comment, ODI Global)
• The case for a G20 liquidity shield amid geoeconomic fragmentation (Expert comment, ODI Global)

Europe is again confronting war on its continent at a moment when old assumptions and rules about security are breaking down. Alliances feel less certain, deterrence less predictable, and responsibility more contested.

Military-first, state-centric models of security are dominating the debate. But this narrow view doesn't capture the overlapping risks shaping the world Europe now faces – from conflicts and humanitarian crises to climate stress, tech disruption and deepening trust between major powers.

Rearmament alone isn't enough. Social cohesion, energy security, resilience and political legitimacy are just as central to what security looks like in practice.

In this episode, our guests explore how security should be redefined – who bears responsibility, how risks are understood, and what must change in policies and institutions if Europe is to navigate a more complex and contested world.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Benedetta Berti, Secretary General of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly
• Ingeborg Denissen, Deputy Director of Security Policy, Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs
• Dora Meredith, Director, ODI Europe

Related resources

• The security we need: rebalancing military spending for a sustainable and peaceful future (Event video recording, ODI Global)
• How is Ukraine redefining global security? (Think Change podcast, ODI Global)
• Read more about ODI Europe

A year into Trump’s second term, guests examine how India, China, Russia and other big powers are recalibrating strategies in a shifting global order.

2026 has already been marked by significant geopolitical upheaval. US military intervention in Latin America points to a wider trend: the return of a world order shaped by hard power, where rules and international law are increasingly sidelined.

The international landscape is rapidly evolving. But how are other major powers responding? How is this impacting international financial markets?

This episode explores how India, China, Russia and other big powers are changing their strategies in response to this new phase of US foreign policy. Moving beyond the usual focus of what’s happening in Washington, D.C., it examines the perspectives of other key regions and how these shifts are redefining their economic interests, and defence and security agendas.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• H.E. Fatafehi Fakafānua, The Prime Minister of Tonga
• Mr. Manish Singh, Chief Investment Officer Cross Bridge Capital
• Dr Rebecca Nadin, Director of Global Risks and Resilience and The Centre for Geopolitics of Global Change at ODI Global

Related resources

• Trump’s Monroe Doctrine 2.0 redefines great power competition in the Americas - now it's Beijing's move (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• The year ahead in global risks: foresight for a world in transition 2026 (Insight, ODI Global)
• The Centre for Geopolitics of Global Change (ODI Global)
  
  
• The Resilient and Sustainable Islands Initiative (ODI Global)