Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma is back for The OPEX Effect to explain why July options expiration could remove a major source of market support and open the door to a volatility spike or stock market correction. We examine positive gamma, ultra-low S&P 500 implied volatility, near-record-low correlation, extreme Nasdaq volatility, AI stock dispersion and why the current setup resembles July 2024 before a 10% drawdown.

Brent Kochuba on X
https://x.com/spotgamma

SpotGamma
https://spotgamma.com

Main topics covered

• Why markets have become numb to geopolitical risk, war headlines and oil volatility

• How market-maker hedging, positive gamma and systematic options selling stabilize stocks

• Why OPEX and VIX expiration can create a window of weakness or a window of strength

• How ETF growth, leveraged products and new listings create additional options exposure

• Why July OPEX is small for the S&P 500 but meaningful for AI and semiconductor stocks

• What happened to SpaceX volatility after traders sold expensive calls and puts

• Why expensive implied volatility can make put options lose money even when a stock falls

• What extreme COR1M and dispersion reveal about the divide beneath the market averages

• Why S&P 500 volatility is priced for perfection while Nasdaq volatility resembles a meme stock

• Why the VXN-VIX spread and July 2024 analog have Brent preparing for a potential correction

Timestamps

00:00 Why markets are ignoring geopolitical risk
05:16 How systematic options flows stabilize stocks
09:33 Gamma squeezes and why OPEX can reset market trends
13:37 Positive gamma and suppressed daily volatility
17:41 How new listings and ETFs feed into options markets
21:48 Why July OPEX is concentrated in single stocks
25:48 Reviewing June guardrails and the AI stock correction
30:39 July gamma support and the post-OPEX window of weakness
38:34 Near-record-low correlation and a fragile market setup
44:20 S&P 500 volatility is priced for perfection
48:31 Why options are serially underpricing volatility
52:31 How AI could reshape the Nasdaq and its volatility
57:54 Why July 2024 may be the key OPEX analog
01:02:02 Brent's market risk outlook and hedging plan

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. They discuss why SpaceX may trade more on flows than fundamentals, how call buying could create a gamma squeeze, and why June OPEX, VIX expiration, FOMC, oil, Iran headlines, and index inclusion could all collide at once.

Brent Kochuba on X
https://x.com/spotgamma

SpotGamma
https://spotgamma.com

Topics covered:

• Why SpaceX is a flows game at the start of trading

• How the SpaceX IPO could affect liquidity across mega cap tech stocks

• Why fundamentals may not matter when index flows and forced buying dominate

• The role of Nasdaq, Russell, and S&P 500 index decisions in SpaceX trading

• How options could create a gamma squeeze in SpaceX

• Why dealer hedging flows can push stocks higher or lower

• What June options expiration could mean for the S&P 500

• Why VIX expiration and FOMC create a key market window

• How Core1M signaled the recent volatility spasm

• Why expensive calls, not put buying, drove the recent market stress

• The key S&P 500 levels Brent is watching into OPEX

• How oil, rates, inflation, and Fed policy could affect market volatility

• Why Nasdaq options pricing is diverging from the S&P 500

• How SpaceX index inclusion could widen the gap between Nasdaq and the S&P

• What would make Brent add protection or look for another short-term market correction

Timestamps:

00:00 Opening clips and the SpaceX flow setup
05:27 Elon Musk net worth after the SpaceX IPO
07:13 SpaceX, liquidity, Mag Seven selling, and index demand
12:48 Why SpaceX may trade on flows before fundamentals
17:59 What options trading could change for SpaceX
22:05 How call buying can create a gamma squeeze
28:24 Why June OPEX matters more than a normal expiration
33:55 VIX expiration, FOMC, and market path dependency
37:20 The Core1M signal and the recent volatility spasm
41:22 The S&P 500 gamma map and key risk levels
46:25 Why expensive calls drove the market stress
50:14 Oil, rates, inflation, and the Fed setup
57:03 The JPMorgan collar and the 6900 to 7000 support zone
58:32 Nasdaq versus S&P 500 after the SpaceX IPO
01:03:14 Brent’s summary, SpaceX gamma squeeze risk, and the next market setup

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX call volume, zero DTE options, dealer gamma, VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings, oil risk, AI CapEx, and why options flows may help explain both the market’s recent melt-up and the potential for a volatility shift after OPEX.

Guest Links

Brent Kochuba on X
https://x.com/spotgamma

SpotGamma
https://spotgamma.com/

Topics Covered

• Why the market has ignored oil shocks and geopolitical risk while AI earnings dominate investor attention

• How AI CapEx, semiconductors and mega-cap tech have driven a powerful melt-up in stocks

• Why options volume and zero DTE trading are increasingly important for all investors

• How dealer hedging, delta and gamma can affect stock market moves

• Why options expiration can create short-term turning points in markets and volatility

• What the May OPEX setup says about call-heavy positioning in the S&P 500

• Why single-stock options activity in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple, Amazon and AI-related names matters

• How record SPX call volume is being driven by short-dated options flows

• Why Brent is watching VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings and May 19 to May 20 for volatility expansion

• What oil, VIX, correlation and dispersion are signaling about market risk

Timestamps

00:00 Intro: SPX call volume, call-heavy positioning and transient options flows
00:57 Are we in melt-up mode?
05:29 AI, UFOs and how fast market narratives are changing
09:00 Why options flows matter more for everyday investors
13:39 Could SpaceX become the next huge options market?
16:00 How dealer hedging, delta and gamma move through the market
20:44 Why OPEX can become a turning point for stocks and volatility
23:22 Why May OPEX is so call heavy
28:07 The market rally into May expiration
33:00 AI rebranding, meme behavior and downside headline risk
36:07 Reviewing last month’s oil and volatility setup
40:17 How the war flipped market leadership back to tech
44:13 Dealer gamma support in the S&P 500
49:19 Single-stock gamma in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple and Amazon
51:06 Record SPX call volume and the role of zero DTE
54:55 Semiconductor, AI and memory call volume
57:50 From bearish positioning to peak-bull dispersion
59:22 Oil, the S&P 500 and changing correlations
01:03:06 COR1M, dispersion risk and when Brent considers hedging
01:04:57 Brent’s key takeaways for May OPEX and volatility expansion