A special report based on the latest coverage of The Levant Files reveals that the world is holding its breath as the United States and Iran appear to be on a collision course for a major military conflict. The analysis, dated February 2026, points to a series of alarming escalations and a dangerous miscalculation by both sides, suggesting that a full-scale war could be a matter of hours, not weeks.

The immediate trigger for the heightened alert was a stark warning from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, urging all Polish citizens to evacuate Iran immediately, citing the imminent closure of all exit routes. This was followed by a casual but chilling statement from U.S. President Donald Trump, who, when asked about a potential military strike, replied, "I guess I can say I am considering that." This seemingly off-the-cuff remark sent shockwaves through the region, triggering emergency protocols at military bases across the Eastern Mediterranean and causing a spike in shipping insurance rates in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Levant Files paint a grim picture of a region bracing for impact. The United States has reportedly amassed a significant military force of approximately 40,000 personnel in the immediate theater, including a carrier strike group that has gone dark. Israel's military is on high alert, with a spokesperson stating, "the finger is on the trigger." Turkey is preparing for a massive refugee crisis, anticipating up to 1.5 million people fleeing Iran within a 72-hour window.

The core of the crisis, according to the leaked documents, is a dangerous game of chicken. Iran's leadership appears to be betting that President Trump is bluffing to secure a better deal, underestimating his willingness to engage in a full-scale conflict. Conversely, the U.S. administration seems to believe that the Iranian regime is on the verge of collapse and that a decisive military strike is all that is needed to topple it. The report concludes with a chilling observation: the military timeline is rapidly outpacing the diplomatic one, and the world may be sleepwalking into a catastrophic war with devastating human and economic consequences.

Photo: Manus AI

Welcome to this special episode of The Levant Files Deep Dive, available on all major podcast platforms.

On 6 February 2026, the relative peace of Pakistan’s capital was shattered when a suicide bomber targeted the Khadija Tul Kubra Shia mosque in Tarlai Kalan. During the main Friday prayers, an attacker wearing an explosive vest and carrying a firearm opened fire on volunteer guards at the gate before detonating himself near the back rows of more than 400 worshippers inside. The carnage was devastating: at least 31 people were killed and approximately 170 others injured, many critically.

This atrocity—the deadliest attack in Islamabad since 2008—was swiftly claimed by the Islamic State–Pakistan Province (ISPP). The group framed the bombing as a sectarian strike against “infidel” Shias. While Pakistani officials have alleged that “India-backed proxies” operating from Afghan soil facilitated the attack, independent analysts argue it aligns closely with ISPP’s documented pattern of anti-Shia sectarian violence.

The bombing signals a terrifying resurgence of militants’ urban reach, underscoring that even the capital’s outskirts are no longer insulated from the violence ravaging the border provinces. It also highlights the acute vulnerability of Pakistan’s Shia minority, which has long borne a disproportionate share of the country’s internal terrorism. As political instability and economic strain continue to fracture the state, groups like ISPP exploit sectarian fault lines to erode public confidence and destabilize regional security.

Photo: Gemini AI

While diplomats whisper in Omani palaces beneath slow-turning ceiling fans, Iranian security forces open fire on their own streets. The Gulf sits under the guns of a massive U.S. naval armada, yet in Muscat’s shaded corridors, envoys exchange indirect messages about a nuclear program Tehran vows never to dismantle. This is the paradox of modern Iran: a regime fighting for survival against domestic uprising and foreign pressure simultaneously, threatening to sever the global economy’s jugular at Hormuz rather than surrender its ballistic missiles or enrichment centrifuges.The Levant Files launches a new podcast series at the precipice of history. We trace how mass civilian casualties sparked the most dangerous internal crisis since 1979, even as the Trump administration steams toward potential conflict. We dissect the Oman talks—the fragile conduit where Washington and Tehran speak through intermediaries while refusing to budge on existential red lines, even as military strikes loom.From the strait—where a single miscalculation could starve world markets of a fifth of their oil—to the shuttered bazaars of Isfahan where protesters defy live ammunition, we map the interconnected crises threatening to engulf the Levant. Our correspondents separate signal from noise, examining whether these negotiations are genuine off-ramps or elaborate theater masking inevitable confrontation.Join us as we navigate the shadow war between aircraft carriers and uranium hexafluoride, between popular revolution and authoritarian endurance. The stakes have never been higher. The truth has never been more urgent.