In this episode, Nancy Tengler and Arthur Laffer Jr. offer their timely perspective on the state of the consumer, unpacking the crucial differences between retail sales and consumer spending data. The discussion explores current dynamics in the U.S. labor market, the impact of automation across major retailers, and the realities behind headline economic numbers. Listeners will gain nuanced insight into portfolio strategy, professional investing discipline, and the importance of research-driven decisions—along with a review of Nancy's “Five for '25” and a tease of "Six for '26".

Connect with us

• Website: https://laffertengler.com/
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/laffer-investments/
• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/laffertenglerinvestments
• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/laffertenglerinvestments
• X: https://x.com/Laftenginvest

Chapters
(00:01) Comparing retail sales and consumer spending
(05:21) Assessing consumer health and spending dynamics
(06:39) Labor market shifts and automation
(10:36) Macroeconomic indicators and policy outlook
(12:50) Federal Reserve leadership and decision-making
(16:23) Portfolio concentration versus diversification
(23:48) Research-driven investing and performance

Nancy and Arthur are back to tackle the growing chorus of bubble warnings on Wall Street. Nancy breaks down why comparing today's AI-driven market to the dot-com era is fundamentally flawed—spoiler alert: these companies actually have earnings, cash flow, and fortress balance sheets, not just "eyeballs on websites."

Drawing on her experience managing money through the 1990s, Nancy explains why this time really is different. While growth stock earnings were contracting from 1996-2000 even as valuations soared, today's leaders are posting 20% earnings growth. The MAG7 may dominate the S&P, but they're earning that position—and Nancy isn't apologizing for concentration in the best companies.

Arthur dives into the Fed's crossroads moment: with Powell's chairmanship ending in May and the FOMC divided on December rate cuts, what does monetary policy actually look like from here? The duo debates whether the economy running at 4% GDP growth even needs rate cuts, and why Trump's real estate background might explain his "maniacal focus" on lower rates.

Plus: a fascinating look at the eight-fold explosion in driverless taxi usage in California, why Tesla's robo-taxi economics crush Waymo's model, and Nancy's hilarious encounter with a confused Waymo while walking her mini horse (yes, really).

If you're tired of the "bubble" noise and want a clear look at the markets today, this episode is for you.

Connect with us

• Website: https://laffertengler.com/
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/laffer-investments/
• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/laffertenglerinvestments
• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/laffertenglerinvestments
• X: https://x.com/Laftenginvest

Chapters
(00:00) Why this is not a bubble
(03:55) Comparing today’s growth to the 1990s
(06:02) Strength of leading tech companies
(09:20) Broad adoption and impact of AI
(12:33) Federal Reserve uncertainty and leadership
(18:24) Rate policy, housing, and political dynamics
(24:40) Fun factoid: Driverless taxis and EVs

We're thrilled to announce the launch of our new podcast, The Laffer Tengler Take, featuring, you guessed it, Arthur Laffer and Nancy Tengler.

In this first episode Arthur and Nancy shift gears to talk about the sometimes intriguing and oftentimes down-right confusing nuances of inflation measurement, the not-so-obvious correlation between gold and inflation, and the revolutionary impact of AI on jobs and market dynamics.

With wit and expertise, they discuss some of the macroeconomic shifts defining our times, offering keen insights into thematic investment opportunities.

Speaking of thematic investments, we also announce our new thematic portfolio, Macro Cycle Opportunities, where we'll be investing in all the themes that we think are going to continue to drive this technological revolution, like space and robotics, quantum, nuclear, and ai.

If you're interested, please reach out to us on our website. We're also excited to get your questions, so connect with us via the links below as we'd like to tackle your questions in upcoming episodes!

Connect with us

• Website: https://laffertengler.com/
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/laffer-investments/
• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/laffertenglerinvestments
• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/laffertenglerinvestments
• X: https://x.com/Laftenginvest

Chapters
(00:01) New format and rebranding
(00:56) Defining and measuring inflation
(07:35) Data reliability and CPI limitations
(10:16) Gold as an inflation hedge
(14:27) Shifts in jobs and AI’s impact
(19:56) Revenue per employee and AI productivity
(23:35) Technology adoption and market concentration
(30:05) Macro cycle opportunities and thematic investing