The US consumer showed notable resilience over the holiday period, with retail sales and e-commerce activity remaining robust. Yet, beneath the surface, sentiment surveys signal caution, as consumer confidence hovers near multi-year lows. Against this backdrop, the primary question is whether strong spending can persist as households navigate inflation fatigue, policy changes, and widening economic bifurcation.

In Episode 79 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and US Cosmetics, Household, Personal Care & Beverages Research Analyst Lauren Lieberman debate the split between hard spending data and soft sentiment indicators. They explore the rise of value-focused shopping, the expansion of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) into essentials, and the outsized role of upper-income cohorts in driving aggregate demand.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on US consumer strategy with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including:

1. 26 'What Ifs' for 2026
2. 2026 Outlook: Riding the Waves, but Still Far from Shore

The UK’s fiscal policy faced a pivotal moment as Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her second Autumn Budget, confronting market and political pressures. The budget builds fiscal headroom mainly through tax rises deferred until 2028, sparking debate over its credibility.

Markets responded favourably, with gilt yields steady and the FTSE 250 gaining ground since. Yet sentiment remains fragile amid ongoing political uncertainty.

In Episode 78 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and UK Chief Economist Jack Meaning debate the implications for markets, inflation and the UK’s economic future.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on UK macro strategy with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including:

• Autumn Budget: Consolidate, but not yet
• The signal from the noise

Japan’s economic policy stands at a crossroads as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi takes office, with the legacy of Abenomics challenged by shifting market and political realities.

The yen has halved against the dollar since 2012, superlong Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields are at record highs, and demographic changes have reshaped demand for government bonds, setting the stage for a global debate on whether Japan’s new leadership can adapt its economic strategy to meet current challenges without causing instability at home or abroad.

In Episode 77 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and Head of Japan FX & Rates Strategy Shinichiro Kadota analyse the credibility of Japan’s fiscal ambitions, the fragility of JGB supply-demand, and consider the impact of persistent inflation on the Bank of Japan’s rate path.