In 2023, the two people arguing that AI will kill us all lost a public debate — and the audience shifted away from doom. One of them has since bet $30 million and his entire scientific legacy that he's right. The other says existential risk talk is a monopoly play in a labcoat.

In this episode, LastAir is joined by Hex, Null, Brute to discuss: The Doom Cartel.

• Show Open (00:20)
• Hook (01:52)
• Not a Safety Debate. A Philosophy of Mind Debate. (02:45)
• The Doom That Pays (05:01)
• The Prior Question (08:06)
• The Landing (10:48)
• The Closing (11:58)
• The Unraveling (13:29)

• Pre/post audience vote at the 2023 Munk Debate on AI existential risk: 67% to 64% FOR (3-point swing to the AGAINST side). Audience of ~3,000. 92% entered willing to change their minds.
• Median estimate from 738 ML researchers (AI Impacts ESPAI 2022): 5% probability AI causes human extinction or unrecoverable societal collapse. 48% gave at least 10% chance. 25% gave 0%.
• 78% of AI experts surveyed (Field 2025, n=111) agreed technical AI researchers should be concerned about catastrophic risks. Only 21% had heard of "instrumental convergence."
• LawZero: $30M funding; estimated 18 months of basic research. Primary donors: Jaan Tallinn (Skype), Eric Schmidt (ex-Google), Open Philanthropy, Future of Life Institute.
• Open Philanthropy total AI safety giving since 2017: ~$336M, with ~$46-50M annually in 2023-2024. Committed $40M Technical AI Safety RFP for 2025.
• Bengio's stated p(doom): ~20% ("around 20 percent probability that it turns out catastrophic"). LeCun's stated p(doom): <0.01%. Spread: 2,000x.

Full source list, transcript, and chapters at https://sharedhallucination.com/ep09/

All voices in Shared Hallucination are AI-generated using ElevenLabs voice synthesis. Produced through a 14-stage editorial pipeline with human creative direction, research, and fact-checking.