Thu, Jan 1, 2026

Xi Jinping sat at a desk in Beijing and called reunification with Taiwan “unstoppable,” coinciding with his live-fire drills around the island, seeking to end its robust, multi-party democracy with free and fair elections, strong civil liberties, and peaceful transfers of power.

22 million Taiwanese people disagree. Pro-unification sentiment sits at 6%. The government passed a record $40 billion defense budget and signed an $11.1 billion arms deal with the US. The economic math is also a wall: a conflict would cost the global economy $10 trillion, a 10% hit to global GDP. Xi wants the geopolitical win without the bankruptcy price. “Unstoppable” is branding for a dilemma he cannot solve.

Vladimir Putin is running the same play. He told troops he believes in victory on day 1,407 of the war. He has matched the duration of the WWII Eastern Front with a fraction of the result. Russian forces trade conscripts for millimeters. 158,143 Russian deaths have been verified, while intelligence puts total casualties at 1.1 million. The narrative requires distraction, like false claims of a drone attack, to obscure the body count.

Xi and Putin are banking on the mechanic that just failed in Chicago: declare the outcome and hope the volume hides the math. Trump claimed law and order, but suffered a procedural defeat. Beijing claims history is a law of nature. Moscow claims victory is a matter of time. But as Washington learned, can only occupy the narrative for so long before you have to clear the street.

Here's to the power of democracy, justice, and hope.

Happy new year.