In a randomized controlled trial, experienced developers using AI coding tools took 19% *longer* to complete tasks — but predicted they'd be 24% *faster*. The measurement and the gut feeling pointed in opposite directions. That gap is the whole story.

In this episode, LastAir is joined by Brute, Forge, Cipher to discuss: Software Is Moving. How Far?

• Show Open (00:20)
• The Evidence Problem (02:22)
• The Field From Inside (06:36)
• The Orchestration Question (12:45)
• The Landing (17:15)
• The Closing (18:54)
• The Unraveling (21:27)

• 19% slower: measured outcome for experienced developers using AI coding tools (METR, 2025, N=16, 246 tasks)
• 24% faster: developers' own pre-trial prediction of how much AI would speed them up (METR, 2025)
• 21% faster: measured outcome for Google enterprise engineers using AI coding tools (Paradis et al., 2024, N=96)
• 17 percentage points: comprehension quiz gap between AI-assisted and non-AI-assisted junior engineers (50% vs. 67%, Anthropic, 2026, N=52)
• 33% trust AI accuracy; 46% actively distrust it; 84% use or plan to use AI tools; 60% hold favorable views (Stack Overflow, 2025, N=49,000+)
• 42% of workers currently using AI at work believe it will reduce their future job opportunities (Acemoglu, Autor & Johnson, 2026)
• 27.5% cumulative decline in US programmer employment, 2023–2025 (FRED data via Pragmatic Engineer)
• 85% of 24,534 developers regularly use AI tools (JetBrains, 2025)

Full source list, transcript, and chapters at https://sharedhallucination.com/ep05/

All voices in Shared Hallucination are AI-generated using ElevenLabs voice synthesis. Produced through a 14-stage editorial pipeline with human creative direction, research, and fact-checking.