Just south of the American border, an internal security crisis is unfolding.

This episode of Signals Over Noise examines the rise of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and the growing instability in parts of Mexico following the recent operation by Mexican security forces that killed cartel leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes.

In the days following the operation, coordinated cartel retaliation led to hundreds of roadblocks, burned vehicles, armed clashes, and major disruptions across western Mexico. In some regions, conditions temporarily resembled an active conflict zone.

Mexico remains a functioning state, but in some areas the monopoly on violence is increasingly contested. This episode examines what the events of the past week reveal about the changing nature of organized violence in Mexico and what it means for the United States.

Using the Signals Over Noise analytical framework, we examine:

The origins and rapid expansion of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel

The cartel’s business model and global supply chains

Foreign chemical supply connections to China and India

The development of cartel paramilitary capabilities

The recent security operations and cartel retaliation

Propositional Saying, Showing, and Silence

Language Game alignment between the United States and Mexico

Possible future outcomes

This episode is not about sensationalism. It is about understanding the signals that indicate risk and escalation.

Mexico is not at war — but parts of the country are experiencing an internal security crisis that increasingly resembles irregular conflict.

As Woodrow Wilson observed more than a century ago:

"If your neighbor’s house is on fire, your own house is in danger."

Signals Over Noise analyzes open-source information to better understand conflict, risk, and escalation at home and abroad.

New episodes include:

• Weekly Intelligence Briefings

• Strategic Deep Dives

• Expert Interviews

• Explainers on conflict and escalation

Follow Signals Over Noise for structured analysis that cuts through the noise.

#mexico #cartel #CJNG #Jaliscocartel #elmencho #cartelwar

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This week on Signals Over Noise, we examine the major strategic signals shaping the global environment — from institutional tensions in the United States to great-power competition across multiple regions.

In North America, we look at the Supreme Court challenge to emergency tariffs, the President’s response, and the continued fallout from the Epstein files and what it reveals about public trust.

In South America, a rare meeting between U.S. Southern Command leadership and Venezuelan counterparts in Caracas signals renewed U.S. engagement in a region where influence is increasingly contested.

In Europe, the Munich Security Conference highlights shifting priorities among Western allies as the United Kingdom and Canada move toward stabilizing economic relations with China.

In Africa, security cooperation expands while instability in the Sahel and external influence continue reshaping the strategic landscape.

In the Indo-Pacific, new missile deployments, expanded surveillance, and major multinational exercises reflect a rapidly evolving deterrence posture.

And in the Middle East, we examine the global fallout from the Epstein files and the growing confrontation between the United States and Iran — including diplomatic talks in Geneva and reports that U.S. forces could be ready for strikes within days.

We close with the fundamental question facing American statesmanship:

When should the United States use force — and what does it cost to stand for our principles?

Signals Over Noise analyzes open-source intelligence using a structured framework to understand risk, alignment, and escalation in a changing world.

The Department of Veterans Affairs is facing renewed scrutiny.

A recent investigative report raised questions about fraud and oversight inside the VA’s disability compensation system. At the same time, a new interim rule has changed how certain disability ratings are evaluated, affecting how benefits may be calculated going forward.

Overlaying these developments is a broader policy blueprint known as Project 2025, authored by conservative policy leaders and contributors, some of whom now serve in senior federal roles.

Is this routine administrative reform?

Or are we witnessing a deeper structural shift in how the federal government approaches veteran care?

In this deep dive, we examine:

• What Project 2025 says in its own words• Its origins and contributor network• The Washington Post investigation into alleged VA fraud• The personnel overlap between the project and current federal appointees• And why this may be shaping into a negative-sum dynamic

This isn’t partisan commentary.

It’s a statesmanship question.

How do you reform an institution built on a national covenant, without weakening the trust that sustains it?

This is Signals Over Noise.

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