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Redefining Energy

Redefining Energy

Von: Laurent Segalen and Gerard Reid
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 Two investment bankers weekly explore how tech, finance, markets and regulations are radically redefining the world of energy: Renewable Energy, Electric Cars, Hydrogen, Battery Storage, Digitisation...
Your co-hosts: from Berlin, Gerard Reid and from London, Laurent Segalen.
Our LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/company/redefining-energy/
X handle: @Redef_EnergyLaurent Segalen and Gerard Reid Ökonomie
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  • 217. Lithium, Copper, Silver and other metals go ballistic - Feb26

    217. Lithium, Copper, Silver and other metals go ballistic - Feb26
    Feb 23 2026
    Lithium has doubled in three months. Copper is printing record highs. Silver went vertical—then collapsed. The move was fast. The reversals were faster. Volatility isn’t elevated. It’s systemic.

    But this isn’t just another commodity cycle. These metals sit at the core of the energy transition. They’re embedded in batteries, EVs, transmission lines, datacenters, wind turbines, and solar modules. When they move, the entire transition complex moves with them.

    So, what are we really looking at? Is this a positioning squeeze in thin markets? Or the early tremors of a structural repricing?

    The divide is clear. At The Carlyle Group, Jeff Currie argues we’re only “on the foothills of the Himalayas” — the early stage of a structural supercycle driven by electrification, grid build-out, and constrained supply. Ed Morse pushes back. High prices cure high prices. Capital flows. Supply responds. Markets rebalance. Cycles end the way they always have. Two very different frameworks. One structural. One cyclical.

    To cut through the noise, Laurent and Gerard sit down with Matt Fernley, Managing Director at Battery Materials Review and Partner at RK Equity. They dissect what’s actually driving these rallies — inventory tightness, permitting bottlenecks, capital discipline, geopolitics, demand elasticity.

    They confront the supply question head-on: Can new production realistically catch up — on time, on budget, and at scale? And they explore the technologies that could reshape the curve — from the re-emergence of direct lithium extraction (DLE) to the accelerating development of sodium-ion batteries.

    This isn’t just about price volatility. It’s about whether the energy transition is entering a new cost regime. Because if these inputs are structurally repricing, everything downstream changes. And if they aren’t — the unwind could be just as violent.

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    Link to the report by the Volta Foundation
    https://volta.foundation/battery-report-2025/
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    27 Min.
  • 216. Clean Energy Equities Market: "Dancing While the Music Plays" - Feb26

    216. Clean Energy Equities Market: "Dancing While the Music Plays" - Feb26
    Feb 16 2026
    Clean Energy equities have comfortably outperformed the major indices in 2025.

    Laurent and Gerard are joined by friend of the show Shanu Mathew, an equity portfolio manager everyone in the sector knows to unpack what’s really driving this performance.

    We begin by putting recent returns into a longer-term context — and by flagging an important caveat: some of the strongest results are coming from highly concentrated portfolios.

    Shanu makes a critical distinction that often gets blurred in market commentary: equipment providers versus sellers of electrons. On one side sit companies like GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, Schneider Electric, Caterpillar — and the surprise guest, Bloom Energy. On the other are utilities and IPPs. The divergence is striking. Equipment manufacturers have gone ballistic; utilities have performed, but at a far more pedestrian pace.

    The difference, unsurprisingly, is pricing power. Equipment suppliers — particularly those insulated from Chinese competition — have been able to push through aggressive price increases, turbocharged by surging demand from Hyperscalers. Utilities, by contrast, remain constrained by regulation, public scrutiny, and political pressure.

    The result? Hyperscalers are increasingly looking to self-generation: reciprocating engines, fuel cells, and a growing enthusiasm for frontier technologies such as Enhanced Geothermal and Small Modular Reactors.

    We walk through these alternatives, examine how public markets are valuing them today, and end where every cycle eventually leads us: Are we in a bubble?
    Or, as Chuck Prince, then CEO of Citigroup, famously put it on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis:
    “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”
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    34 Min.
  • 215. PPAs, FPAs, IPPs, Flex and Capture rates: new paradigms - Feb26

    215. PPAs, FPAs, IPPs, Flex and Capture rates: new paradigms - Feb26
    Feb 9 2026
    Luca Pedretti, Co-Founder, Pexapark, returns to discuss how volatility, market design, and new contract structures are transforming power markets and renewable economics. What begins with PPA pricing quickly evolves into a broader conversation about where value is now created in the clean energy system.

    We start with the growing importance of IFRS 13 fair value accounting. In increasingly volatile markets, long-term forecasts are no longer sufficient. Market-implied PPA prices are moving faster than fundamentals and are becoming a key signal for future capture rates and risk, forcing investors to reassess how renewable assets are valued.

    The discussion then turns to Flexibility Purchase Agreements (FPAs), including tolls and floors for batteries. FPAs reflect a fundamental shift from generation toward flexibility and optimisation, as renewable-heavy systems face cannibalisation, negative prices, and widening price spreads.

    With clean sources now accounting for nearly half of EU power generation, these side effects are becoming structural. Solar capture rates have dropped sharply in markets such as Germany, negative prices now occur in thousands of hours across Europe, and curtailment and balancing costs are rising. Batteries have become the system’s primary response.

    We also explore how the buyer landscape is shifting. Hyperscalers and data centres are increasingly driving private PPAs, utilities are regaining relevance through trading and optimisation, and stand-alone renewable PPAs are showing signs of saturation. Despite this, capital deployment across clean energy continues to grow, signalling a reallocation of value rather than a slowdown.

    The conversation concludes with a look ahead. Many renewable assets financed under merchant assumptions are now misaligned with today’s pricing reality. Battery tolls and floors are scaling quickly, consolidation among IPPs is accelerating, and capture rates remain unstable. The open question remains whether any buyers are willing to pay a green premium for co-located and hybrid projects in a market where flexibility has become central to value creation.

    Link to Pexapark reports
    IPPs:
    https://go.pexapark.com/next-gen-ipp-playbook

    Renewables Market Outlook 2026 - The Big Repricing: How volatility and BESS reshape clean energy markets (PPAs and FPAs):

    https://pexapark.com/pexapark-renewables-market-outlook-2026/
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    28 Min.
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