Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Bridging Logic, Law, and Probability
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Reasoning Under Uncertainty: Bridging Logic, Law, and Probability
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This podcast explores the critical intersection of mathematical probability and the administration of criminal justice, aiming to equip legal professionals and forensic scientists to be responsible producers and discerning consumers of statistical evidence. We delve into the foundational language of probability, from sample spaces and random variables to the nuances of independent and dependent events.Each episode provides an intellectual toolkit for navigating reasoning under uncertainty, examining powerful concepts like Bayes’ Theorem, the likelihood ratio, and the normal distribution to understand how evidence truly weighs on a case. We pay special attention to the "traps for the unwary," deconstructing dangerous errors such as illegitimately transposing the conditional (the "prosecutor’s fallacy") and source probability errors, both of which have historically led to serious miscarriages of justice. Whether discussing the binomial distribution or the empirical rule, this series transforms abstract math into a vital guide for achieving epistemically warranted verdicts in the courtroom.
