Dan Gray is a prolific thinker, writer and researcher in the VC world, who describes himself as best known for “long walls of text on Twitter about the venture industry.” Now the Research Lead at Odin, he sits down with Nick Chirls, Partner at Asylum Ventures, and Beezer Clarkson, Partner at Sapphire Partners, to discuss the bifurcation of VC, the different types of risk in venture, and the role geography plays in investing. He also unpacks a survey he recently conducted that dives deep into how early-stage VC is faring in a challenging year.

Learn more about Sapphire Partners: sapphireventures.com/sapphire-partners

Learn more about OpenLP: openlp.vc

Learn more about Asylum Ventures: asylum.vc

Learn more about Odin: joinodin.com

Read Dan’s Writing on VC: credistick.com

Read the Results of Dan’s Survey: credistick.com/lp-2025

For a monthly roundup of the latest venture insights, including the newest Origins episodes, subscribe to the OpenLP newsletter – delivered straight to your inbox: subscribe.openlp.vc

CHAPTERS:0:00 Welcome to Origins2:16 Unpacking the Early-Stage VC Survey12:27 Who’s Participating Where and When?15:30 The Importance of GP Branding22:19 Dan’s Advice to Early Managers29:47 What the New Normal Looks Like32:20 How Can Smaller Firms Compete?40:34 What Does This Mean for 2026?

Origins is produced by Sapphire Ventures in partnership with⁠⁠ Pod People.⁠

Nothing presented herein is intended to constitute investment advice, and under no circumstances should any information provided herein be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any investment fund managed by Sapphire Ventures, LLC (“Sapphire”). Any offer or solicitation of securities by Sapphire may only be made in accordance with the current offering documents for a managed Fund in which Sapphire is an advisor. Additionally, Sapphire does not solicit or make its services available to the public; such offerings may only be provided to accredited investors and qualified purchasers defined within the Securities Act of 1933 and the Investment Company Act of 1940. Information provided reflects Sapphire Ventures’ views as of a particular time. Such views are subject to change at any point and Sapphire Ventures shall not be obligated to provide notice of any change. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or the actual experience may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in these statements. While Sapphire Ventures has used reasonable efforts to obtain information from reliable sources, Sapphire makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of third party information presented herein. Nothing presented herein may be relied upon as a guarantee or assurance as to the future success of any particular investment opportunity or strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

2025 was, undoubtedly, the year of AI. In the first episode of 2026 Beezer Clarkson, Partner at Sapphire Partners, and Nick Chirls, Partner at Asylum Ventures revisit some of their favorite moments from the year before to see what the top voices in VC saw as emerging AI trendlines and how the venture ecosystem and global markets might respond next. In this episode we’ll hear from – among others – Sarah Tavel of Benchmark about what it means to be truly AI native, Sunil Dhaliwal & Mike Dauber of Amplify about finding technical VCs in the age of AI, and Micah Rosenbloom of Founder Collective on how early stage venture often misses major trends like AI until it’s too late.

Learn more about Sapphire Partners: sapphireventures.com/sapphire-partners

Learn more about OpenLP: openlp.vc

Learn more about Asylum Ventures: asylum.vc

Learn more about Benchmark: benchmark.com

Learn more about Amplify: amplifypartners.com

Learn more about Founder Collective: foundercollective.com

Learn more about Curie.Bio: curie.bio

Read Sarah’s Substack Posts: sarahtavel.com

CHAPTERS:

0:00 Welcome to Origins

3:36 Being AI Native with Sarah Tavel

10:36 Finding Technical Founders with Mike Dauber & Sunil Dhaliwal

14:31 Early Stage Founders Are 7 Years Too Late with Micah Rosenbloom

23:04 What AI CAN’T Do with Zach Weinberg28:37-Technical vs. Product Genius with Sarah Tavel

38:49 Nick & Beezer’s AI Trends to Watch In 2026

For a monthly roundup of the latest venture insights, including the newest Origins episodes, subscribe to the OpenLP newsletter – delivered straight to your inbox: subscribe.openlp.vc

Origins is produced by Sapphire Ventures in partnership with⁠ Pod People.

Nothing presented herein is intended to constitute investment advice, and under no circumstances should any information provided herein be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any investment fund managed by Sapphire Ventures, LLC (“Sapphire”). Any offer or solicitation of securities by Sapphire may only be made in accordance with the current offering documents for a managed Fund in which Sapphire is an advisor. Additionally, Sapphire does not solicit or make its services available to the public; such offerings may only be provided to accredited investors and qualified purchasers defined within the Securities Act of 1933 and the Investment Company Act of 1940. Information provided reflects Sapphire Ventures’ views as of a particular time. Such views are subject to change at any point and Sapphire Ventures shall not be obligated to provide notice of any change. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or the actual experience may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in these statements. While Sapphire Ventures has used reasonable efforts to obtain information from reliable sources, Sapphire makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of third party information presented herein. Nothing presented herein may be relied upon as a guarantee or assurance as to the future success of any particular investment opportunity or strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Origins host Beezer Clarkson, LP at Sapphire Partners and co-founder of OpenLP, and Nick Chirls, GP at Asylum Ventures, dig into their recent conversation with Micah Rosenbloom, Managing Partner at Founder Collective. They discuss the EQ and self-awareness required to switch from operator to investor, how to separate signal from noise in venture cycles, and how the speed of iteration is now such that a window of one or two days can change the entire calculus of an investment.

Learn more about Sapphire Partners: sapphireventures.com/sapphire-partners

Learn more about OpenLP: openlp.vc

Learn more about Asylum Ventures: asylum.vc

Learn more about Founder Collective: foundercollective.com

For a monthly roundup of the latest venture insights, including the newest Origins episodes, subscribe to the OpenLP newsletter – delivered straight to your inbox: subscribe.openlp.vc

CHAPTERS:

0:00 Welcome to Origins

0:34 How Involved Should Operators Be With Their CEOs?

2:16 VCs and Trends Are Seven Years Too Late

3:19 Repeat Portfolio Companies: Courageous Or Insane?

5:42 How Do VCs Handle the Speed of Iteration?

Origins is produced by Sapphire Ventures in partnership with⁠⁠ Pod People.⁠

Nothing presented herein is intended to constitute investment advice, and under no circumstances should any information provided herein be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any investment fund managed by Sapphire Ventures, LLC (“Sapphire”). Any offer or solicitation of securities by Sapphire may only be made in accordance with the current offering documents for a managed Fund in which Sapphire is an advisor. Additionally, Sapphire does not solicit or make its services available to the public; such offerings may only be provided to accredited investors and qualified purchasers defined within the Securities Act of 1933 and the Investment Company Act of 1940. Information provided reflects Sapphire Ventures’ views as of a particular time. Such views are subject to change at any point and Sapphire Ventures shall not be obligated to provide notice of any change. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or the actual experience may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in these statements. While Sapphire Ventures has used reasonable efforts to obtain information from reliable sources, Sapphire makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of third party information presented herein. Nothing presented herein may be relied upon as a guarantee or assurance as to the future success of any particular investment opportunity or strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.