Markets Digest Tariff Ruling as Inflation Pressures Persist

This week’s discussion reflects a market navigating slower growth and firmer inflation. Fourth‑quarter GDP shows a clear downshift, while PCE inflation surprised to the upside on both headline and core measures. The panel explains why sticky inflation and recent FOMC minutes raise the bar for rate cuts, with markets responding through higher front-end yields and a flatter curve. Investors are also assessing the Supreme Court Tariff Ruling, which adds policy uncertainty at a time when markets are already range‑bound. Ongoing rotation beneath the surface reinforces the importance of diversification and discipline in a choppy environment.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:55 — Industrial production shows modest January strength

03:53 — GDP slowdown and PCE inflation surprise

07:35 — Fed outlook, yields, and rate‑cut expectations

12:12 — AI uncertainty and sector rotation beneath the market

16:05 — Supreme Court tariff ruling and market implications

Additional Resources

Attend: Key Wealth National Call: Navigating Noise, Finding Meaning: A Conversation with Brian Portnoy, PhD, CFA

Read: Key Questions: Investing Before Lift‑Off – What Should Investors Know About Private Markets and the Next IPO Cycle?

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This week, we review a busy week of economic data, including updates on retail sales, employment, and inflation, and discuss what these signals mean for the broader economy. We ask how markets are digesting softening inflation, shifting Fed expectations, sector-level dispersion in equities, and ongoing volatility tied to AI-driven disruption. We end the episode with guest Sean Poe, Director of Investment Research at Key Wealth, who provides some guidance on how investors might think about IPOs, private markets and portfolio construction in the current environment.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy, Key Wealth

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer, Key Wealth

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income, Key Wealth

Steve Hoedt, Head of Equities, Key Wealth

Sean Poe, Director of Investment Research, Key Wealth

02:18 – Retail sales, employment report, inflation (CPI), and what they indicate about consumer strength and economic momentum.

05:17 – A macro interpretation and outlook, including recession expectations, labor market trends, housing’s role in inflation, and potential future Fed actions.

08:29 – We look at this week’s bond market reaction, shifts in rate cut expectations, Treasury yields, safe‑haven flows, and credit market sector performance.

13:00 – We break down the equity market dynamics, rising volatility, sector rotation, AI-driven disruptions, and the shift toward “HALO” (hard assets, low obsolescence) stocks.

16:15 – Sean Poe delivers a thorough overview of the state of the IPO market, why the IPO window closed in recent years, early signs of reopening, and the role of AI-driven capital needs. He also touches on implications for investors, including considerations around accessing IPOs, the role of private markets, and the importance of portfolio construction and advisor guidance.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: Investing Before Lift‑Off – What Should Investors Know About Private Markets and the Next IPO Cycle?

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Markets absorbed a brief U.S. government shutdown, ongoing fourth‑quarter earnings, and fresh readings from the Institute for Supply Management: Services stayed in expansion while Manufacturing showed a tentative uptick. While the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ payroll report was delayed, other labor signals softened—job openings slipped to 6.5 million, weekly claims rose to 231,000, and the ADP private payrolls tally was only 22,000. Equity leadership shifted as AI pressure hit software stocks while investors favored tangible, cash‑flowing businesses and added non‑U.S. exposure. Credit stayed orderly—investment‑grade spreads widened slightly and high‑yield widened a bit more—while the riskiest tier gained a little over 1% year‑to‑date. Treasury yields eased; the European Central Bank and Bank of England held policy rates steady.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

00:01:35 — Week setup: shutdown ends, Q4 earnings, Services up, Manufacturing perks up.

00:03:10 — Jobs picture softens; big payrolls report pushed to next week; thoughts on the U.S. Dollar.

00:08:36 — AI tool sparks global software selloff; chips seen as enablers.

00:15:29 — Credit mostly calm; risk appetite cools a bit this week.

00:21:07 — Super Bowl picks and quick Ohio note to close.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: Who Is Kevin Warsh and What Does His Appointment Mean for the Fed's Next Chapter?

Read: Comprehensive Key Numbers

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Weekly Investment Brief

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