Is 2026 shaping up to be a breakout year for short-term rentals — or another year of mixed signals? In this January market review, the STR Data Lab team unpacks early indicators that could define performance for the rest of the year, from rising bookings and shifting travel patterns to economic tailwinds and major event demand. For hosts, property managers, and investors, these first-month signals offer critical clues about where revenue opportunities — and risks — are emerging.

While occupancy dipped year over year due to continued supply growth, bookings surged at one of the strongest rates in months, signaling healthy future demand. Coastal destinations are seeing robust early reservations ahead of spring break and summer travel, while urban markets are experiencing a surprising boost driven largely by anticipation of the upcoming World Cup. Meanwhile, mountain and ski destinations are facing headwinds from a weak Western snow season — a reminder that hyper-local factors can still outweigh national trends.

The episode also zooms out to the economic backdrop shaping travel demand: job growth, disposable income, inflation trends, tax policy changes, and even larger tax refunds. The takeaway is clear — when people have money in their pockets, travel follows. Add in the potential windfall from major events like the World Cup, and hosts across many markets could see outsized revenue opportunities if they prepare early.

You don’t want to miss this episode if you’re planning pricing, investments, or strategy for 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Booking momentum matters more than current occupancy. Strong forward bookings suggest healthy demand ahead even if winter performance looks weak.

• Coastal markets are leading early for spring and summer travel. Hosts in beach destinations should prepare for competitive pricing and high demand.

• Major events create spillover demand beyond host cities. Nearby markets may benefit from travelers extending trips around large events.

• Mountain market performance is highly weather-dependent. Diversifying seasonality strategies can reduce risk in ski destinations.

• Economic conditions are turning favorable for travel. Rising disposable income and tax refunds could fuel increased bookings in 2026.

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Episode 170