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The Acceleration of AI, Software Development, and the "Calcification" of Industry

The Acceleration of AI, Software Development, and the "Calcification" of Industry

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 https://morgantwins.com Briefing Document: Morgan Twins Podcast (S01E01) Hosts: Tim Morgan & Tom Morgan Subject: The Acceleration of AI, Software Development, and the "Calcification" of Industry Executive Summary In their inaugural episode, Tim and Tom Morgan discuss the rapid acceleration of Artificial Intelligence, specifically focusing on the shift from manual coding to AI-assisted development using tools like Claude Code. They argue that AI acts as a "force multiplier" that will shatter "calcified" institutional processes across industries, from filmmaking to healthcare. While acknowledging the displacement of clerical and technical jobs, they predict a counter-movement valuing human authenticity and "craft" goods. Key Themes & Insights 1. The "Force Multiplier" Effect vs. The Magic Button The hosts emphasize that AI is not an omniscient god that solves problems automatically; rather, it mirrors the user's ability. • The Mirror Principle: AI reflects the user's skill level. If a good writer uses AI, they become better. If a bad writer uses it, they produce "garbage". • The Mechanic Analogy: AI is like a jack used by a mechanic. It lifts the heavy weight, but the human still needs to know exactly where to place the jack to fix the car. • Human Language Command: The hosts introduce the concept of the "Human Large Language Model" (HLLM). The better command a human has of their own language, the better results they can extract from the AI. 2. The Destruction of "Calcified" Processes A central thesis of the episode is that industries rely on "calcified" processes—rigid, difficult, and expensive workflows that protect institutional interests. AI is dismantling these barriers. • Filmmaking: The hosts contrast the historical difficulty of physical film editing (negative cutting, expense of film stock) with modern AI tools that replace physicality with software. • Web Development: They discuss moving away from "calcified" institutions like WordPress, which carry heavy overhead, toward leaner, AI-assisted content management systems. • Healthcare & IT: This "smashing" of calcified norms is expected to extend into healthcare and general IT infrastructure. 3. The "Year of Agents" and Economic Impact The hosts declare this the "Year of Agents," referring to AI that can execute tasks rather than just answer questions. • Clerical Replacement: Citing Meta’s acquisition of Manus, the hosts predict the end of traditional clerical work. AI agents can now handle complex form-filling and administrative tasks without benefits, insurance, or breaks. • Cost Compression: They illustrate the economic shock with a hypothetical scenario where a $3 million software team (20 people at $150k each) is replaced by AI automation, resulting in massive material savings for companies. • Coding Evolution: The hosts describe moving from "handcrafted" coding (likened to using a Dremel tool) to using Claude Code, which fixes complex issues in seconds that used to take months. 4. The Authenticity Backlash Paradoxically, as AI capabilities explode, the twins predict a rising market value for non-AI things. • Rise of Craft: People will fatigue on "AI slop," leading to a resurgence in demand for authenticity, such as craft beer, Etsy goods, and local hobbies. • New Jobs: They suggest "pick a hobby, cause that's your new job," implying that economic survival may depend on unique, human-centric individualization rather than traditional employment. Strategic Risks & Warnings • Financial Vulnerability: The hosts note that Silicon Valley’s earlier call for an AI pause likely stemmed from the realization that AI agents could wreak havoc on financial systems in seconds. • Loss of Context (Entropy): A current limitation of AI is its inability to maintain the "middle" of a complex project. Like a busboy dropping a stack of plates, AI remembers the start and end but often loses the context in the middle, requiring human supervision. • Security: As agents proliferate, a new industry is emerging focused on safeguarding and curating AI to ensure agents do not introduce viruses or act maliciously. Notable Analogies • "The Bus Boy": The hosts compare human cognitive load to a bus boy carrying a stack of greasy plates. Humans (and sometimes AI) struggle to keep all "plates" (complex variables) in the air without dropping the ones in the middle. AI helps by handling the stack, but it requires supervision. • "Sandy": They personify AI as "Sandy," a highly competent executive assistant from the old days of business. Treating the AI with the respect and clarity one would offer a top-tier assistant yields superior results. • "The 100-Foot Wave": AI is described as a 100-foot wave right behind us. You cannot outrun it or ignore it; you must learn to ride it or be crushed. Conclusion & Outlook The episode concludes with an "adapt or die" message. The "ontological shock" of AI is here, and ...
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