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The Last Secular Gold Bull Was the 1970s

The Last Secular Gold Bull Was the 1970s

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 The Last Secular Gold Bull Was the 1970s — And Why That Matters NowMost investors misunderstand gold cycles because they confuse price appreciation with regime change.Gold can rise for many reasons.A secular gold bull only happens for one.Loss of faith in the system’s underlying truths.The last time that happened—unambiguously—was the 1970s. Not because inflation was high, but because the monetary framework itself broke.What followed was not simply a bull market.It was a re-pricing of trust.That distinction matters, because we are approaching another such moment now.Secular vs Cyclical: Why Definitions MatterA cyclical bull is an expression of the system.A secular bull is a challenge to it.Gold rises cyclically when:* Inflation expectations increase* The dollar weakens temporarily* Risk assets wobbleGold rises secularly when:* The rules of money change* Confidence in institutions fractures* Previously “settled” economic truths are invalidatedThe 1970s meet this standard perfectly.The 1970s: When the System Admitted It Was BrokenThe Catalyst: 1971When the U.S. closed the gold window, it wasn’t a policy tweak. It was an admission:The system can no longer support its own promises.Gold transitioned from a suppressed monetary anchor to a free-floating barometer of trust. That single act forced the world to discover what gold was actually worth in a fiat system.The Conditions* Persistent negative real rates* Fiscal dominance from war and social spending* Oil shocks exposing resource dependency* Central banks visibly behind the curve* Public confidence erodingGold didn’t rise because investors were clever.It rose because the system was relearning its own price signals.The ResolutionThe secular bull ended only when Volcker restored positive real rates and credibility to monetary policy. Trust was rebuilt—not cheaply, not painlessly—but definitively.That is how secular cycles end.Why 2000–2011 Was Not the SameThe gold rally from 2000 to 2011 is often labeled “secular,” but structurally it was not.Yes, gold went from ~$250 to ~$1,900.No, the system did not reset.There was:* No monetary anchor removed* No fundamental repricing of money* No restoration moment at the endInstead, that period coincided with:* Peak globalization* China’s WTO accession* The expansion phase of the global credit supercycleGold rose as a pressure valve, not as a replacement.When liquidity rotated and confidence temporarily returned, gold stalled—not because the problem was solved, but because it was deferred.That distinction brings us to now.The Pattern: Secular Gold Bulls Follow the Same TriggerThere is a symmetry across history that is often missed:* 1970s: Bretton Woods fails → gold reprices money* 2000s: Credit excess stresses system → gold hedges fragility* 2020s: Fiat credibility, debt saturation, and geopolitical fragmentation convergeEach cycle begins the same way:A loss of faith in previously held market truths.What is different now is what comes next.The Emerging Thesis: A Return to Hard CollateralThe system is not moving backward to a gold standard.It is moving forward to a collateralized monetary framework.Gold and Bitcoin as Collateral, Not CurrencyGold and Bitcoin serve the same role:* Scarce* Non-sovereign* Balance-sheet honestGold anchors trust historically.Bitcoin anchors it digitally.They are not competitors.They are dual collateral layers.Ethereum as the Settlement RailWhere past systems relied on paper promises and opaque clearing, this system runs on:* Smart contracts* Tokenized settlement* Transparent, programmable railsEthereum is not “money.”It is infrastructure.Just as railroads did not replace goods—but moved them—Ethereum does not replace value. It settles it.Why AI Industrialization Forces Hard MoneyAI changes the equation entirely.AI requires:* Massive, continuous energy input* Physical data centers* Semiconductors* Raw materials* Skilled blue-collar labor at scaleThis is not a digital-only revolution.It is a re-industrialization event.And industrial systems do not function on abstract monetary promises indefinitely. They require credible collateral, long-dated capital, and stable settlement.That is why:* Energy* Metals* Infrastructure* Laborare entering a structural supercycle.This mirrors the 1970s in cause, not form:* Then: oil and manufacturing exposed monetary weakness* Now: AI and compute expose monetary abstractionSame trigger. New surface.The Blue-Collar Supercycle No One Is PricingEvery major monetary reset has a labor component.The coming cycle favors:* Electricians* Welders* Construction trades* Semiconductor technicians* Energy workersNot because of politics, but because physical systems are returning to center stage.You cannot AI your way out of thermodynamics.This is why inflation is no longer “transitory” in the classical sense. It is embedded in the rebuild.(below from ICT Pre-FOMC Substack: FOMC Day: The Liquidity Pivot That Ignites the Next Market...
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