An economist calls America’s beef industry a “miracle.” An antitrust scholar calls it “broken.” Maybe they’re both right?

• SOURCES:
  • Austin Frerick, agriculture antitrust expert, fellow at Yale University, author of Barons: Money, Power, and the Corruption of America's Food Industry.
  • Robert Hodgen, C.E.O. of King Ranch.
  • Roger Horowitz, food historian, director of the Center for the History of Business, Technology, and Society at the Hagley Museum and Library.
  • Derrell Peel, Charles Breedlove Professorship of Agribusiness in the department of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University.

• RESOURCES:
  • "The hamburger story," by Derrell Peel (Beef, 2026).
  • "Trump is letting in 300,000 tons of beef duty-free. Don’t expect cheaper burgers," by Elisabeth Buchwald (CNN, 2026).
  • "DOJ Probes Soaring Beef Prices at Eight Major Stores Including Walmart," by Hugh Cameron (Newsweek, 2026).
  • "Takeaways from the Pause on Foreign Corrupt Practices Act Enforcement," by Brendan Quigley, Bridget Moore, Kyle Clark, and Baker Botts (Harvard Law School, 2025).
  • "Tyson and Leviathan: USDA Rulemaking and the PSA Harm to Competition Requirement," by Spencer James Parts (University of Chicago Business Review, 2022).
  • "Average Price: All Uncooked Ground Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average," (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).

• EXTRAS:
  • "An Economics Lesson from a Talking Pencil (Update)," by Freakonomics Radio (2025).
  • "The Future of Meat," by Freakonomics Radio (2019).

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That’s the question at the heart of a battle between Kalshi and state gambling regulators. As prediction markets boom, there are other questions, too — about insider trading, market manipulation, and whether the public has turned against them. (Part two of a two-part series.)

• SOURCES:
  • Gary Gensler, former chair of the S.E.C. and the C.F.T.C.
  • Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.
  • Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi.
  • Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi.

• RESOURCES:
  • "Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?" by Robin Hanson (Journal of Political Philosophy, 2013).

• EXTRAS:
  • "Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?" by Freakonomics Radio (2026).
  • "He Helped Clean Up the Last Crash. Does He See Another One Coming?" by Freakonomics Radio (2026).
  • "The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019).

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The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on? Stephen Dubner speaks with, among others, the C.E.O. of Kalshi. (Part one of a two-part series.)

• SOURCES:
  • Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.
  • Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi.
  • Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi.

• RESOURCE:
  • "Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets," by Anthony Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan Wright (Federal Reserve Board, 2026).
  • "Slowly, Then All At Once: What Mamdani's Victory Tells Us About Information Aggregation," (Kalshi Research, 2026).
  • "Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs," by Robin Hanson (2000).
  • "The Use of Knowledge in Society," by Friedrich Hayek (American Economic Review, 1945).

• EXTRAS:
  • "The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019).
  • "How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future," by Freakonomics Radio (2016).
  • "The Folly of Prediction," by Freakonomics Radio (2011).

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