January 5 gives us three plays across college football and the NBA, each driven by possession control, lineup realities, and mathematical pressure points.

🏈 Montana State Bobcats -10.5 (-110)

Illinois State Redbirds at Montana State Bobcats

Neutral Site — Nashville

This is trench math plus a travel tax. Montana State brings a relentless ground game (234.5 rush YPG with two 1,000-yard backs) against an Illinois State defense that’s been holding on by vibes more than stops.

Quarterback contrast matters here: Tommy Mellott is efficient and controlled, while Illinois State’s profile leans volatile, with turnover risk baked in. Add Montana State’s edge in ball security and late-game physicality, and the second half projects as separation rather than sweat. This sets up as a “control early, pull away late” script.

🏀 Philadelphia 76ers -11.5 (-110)

Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers

Denver’s schedule spot is unforgiving, and the lineup reflects it. With Jokic, Murray, Gordon, and multiple rotation pieces sitting, shot creation becomes scarce and turnovers pile up. Philadelphia owns the rest advantage, the size advantage, and the ability to dominate the possession battle through pressure and rebounding. Nick Nurse doesn’t coast with a lead, and young lineups on the road tend to turn bad minutes into avalanches. If this reaches garbage time, it favors the team still running sets.

🏀 Golden State Warriors (+100)

Warriors at Clippers

Even money on elite three-point volume is always worth attention. Golden State’s offense stresses defenses with sheer shot volume from deep, while the Clippers have struggled to defend the perimeter—an issue magnified without a primary wing stopper. The addition of reliable secondary creation stabilizes Golden State’s non-Curry minutes, reducing the usual drop-off. The Clippers can grind possessions, but when the math turns into a three-point exchange, grinding stops working. At even money, the variance leans our way.

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