Host Neil Crosby talks with June Goh and Michael Ryan about a week of conflicting signals on Iranian vessels, accelerating refinery run cuts across Asia, and the secondary unit squeeze nobody's talking about. The team unpacks why a peace deal wouldn't fix markets overnight, how freight rates could spike if tankers can't reposition in time, and where the real pricing action is in diesel and gasoline.

Chapters:

(00:46) The blockade is here, but what does it actually mean?

Neil opens with the state of play after the failed peace talks, the conflicting signals on which ships are getting through Hormuz, and why owners still don't have enough clarity to act.

(04:16) Even with peace, the supply chain is broken.

June explains why a deal wouldn't fix the market overnight, with three to six months needed to rebuild logistics and reposition the VLCCs that have scattered to the US Gulf Coast.

(06:14) Asian run cuts and SPR draws are accelerating.

The team breaks down Japan's 68% utilization rate, Singapore's 50–60% runs, and China's reluctant move to tap strategic reserves.

(15:33) The secondary unit squeeze nobody's talking about.

June walks through how lower medium sour availability cascades through VGO, hydrocrackers, FCCs, and short residue units, and why Singapore bunker fuel production is at risk.

(22:25) What happens to AG freight if peace lands?

Michael lays out the scenario where a deal triggers a selloff in AG paper, but a shortage of repositioned tankers could cause rates to spike again weeks later.

(25:50) Diesel and gasoline: where the real pricing action is.

The team covers the surprise weakness in Singapore diesel, the divergence in gasoline cracks between East and West, and what it means for arb economics heading into May.