With two U.S. carrier strike groups converging on Iran and a presidential deadline looming, the clock is ticking. In this urgent episode of Intel at the Edge, host Chip Usher — Senior Director for Intelligence at the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) — sits down with Norman Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the CIA, to assess what may be one of the most consequential moments in U.S.-Iran relations in decades.

They cover the state of diplomacy ahead of the Geneva talks, whether Iran will ever genuinely negotiate on its nuclear and missile programs, the risks of miscalculation, Iranian retaliation scenarios, regime stability, and the sweeping transformation reshaping the broader Middle East. Norman Roule spent over three decades as a senior CIA operations officer, including as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran — one of the most critical and sensitive intelligence roles in the U.S. government.

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00:00 – Introduction: Emergency Podcast on the Iran Situation

00:40 – Guest Introduction: Norm Roule’s CIA and Intelligence Background

01:25 – Announcement: AI Plus Intelligence Summit at the Waldorf Astoria 02:03 – Current Military Posture: Carrier Strike Groups and Aircraft Deployment

02:28 – The Diplomatic Inflection Point and March Deadlines

03:38 – Core Issues: Iran’s Nuclear Program and Enrichment Deals

05:31 – U.S. Demands: Missiles and the "Axis of Resistance"

07:56 – Iran’s Missile Arsenal and ICBM Capabilities

08:33 – Upcoming Geneva Talks and Potential for Miscalculation

10:51 – Evaluating Potential U.S. Military Strikes and Iranian Retaliation

14:06 – Degradation of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian Ballistic Assets

16:03 – Diplomacy vs. Military Action: What Compels Tehran to Negotiate?

18:44 – Regime Stability: Domestic Protests and Internal Pressures

20:54 – Outlook: How the Next Two Weeks Will Play Out

25:22 – Regional Dynamics: Shifting U.S. Commitments and Middle East Change

30:25 – Closing Remarks and Future Updates

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.