This week's coffee market report.

• In Brazil, concerns persist over insufficient rainfall in key Arabica-producing regions such as Minas Gerais. Although rain is forecasted, current precipitation levels remain below seasonal norms, raising doubts about optimal flowering and bean development. Concurrently, ongoing trade negotiations with the United States seek to resolve tariff disputes that have negatively impacted Brazilian coffee exports and contributed to reduced shipment volumes and ICE-monitored stock levels.
• Despite a modest year-over-year production increase forecasted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, structural supply issues are keeping the Arabica market tight. In contrast, Vietnam is experiencing strong Robusta production, with a 6% increase projected—marking a four-year high. Favorable weather in regions such as Dok Lakh and the Central Highlands has boosted yields and export volumes, contributing to a bearish market sentiment for Robusta prices.
• This divergence is shaping global market dynamics. The Robusta sector faces downward price pressures from Vietnam’s production surge, while Arabica prices are rising due to persistent deficits and adverse weather conditions. Although global coffee exports remain stable, offering short-term supply relief, the enduring Arabica shortfall continues to weigh on market confidence.