Global Canola Market Summary

• While Canada is increasing planted area to record levels, weather-related yield concerns and policy changes in Europe and Ukraine continue to create uncertainty for global markets.
• In Canada, canola plantings for the 2026/27 season reached a record 23.44 million acres, an 8.4 percent increase from the previous year. However, production forecasts remain unchanged at 22 million tonnes as delayed sowing and cooler June temperatures have raised concerns about potential yield losses. Strong demand from the North American biofuel sector continues to encourage higher acreage, although expectations of larger supplies have pressured new crop futures, with November contracts weakening even as nearby July contracts posted modest gains.
• Across Europe, persistent heatwaves in France, Germany, Poland, and Ukraine have reduced rapeseed yield prospects, tightening production expectations in several key growing regions. At the same time, Ukraine is undergoing a major structural shift in its rapeseed market. A new 10 percent export duty on raw seeds is encouraging domestic processing over exports, reducing forward export sales and lowering export prices. For the first time, domestic processing volumes are approaching export volumes, marking a significant change in the country's market structure and regional trade flows.
• Overall, the global canola market continues to balance competing influences. Expanding acreage and rising biofuel demand are supporting long-term production growth, while weather risks, evolving trade policies, and changing processing patterns are creating uncertainty for near-term supply, pricing, and international trade.