Opening

Reformer Machine Workout at YogaSource in Los Gatos

Sonos nightmare. Gemini won

The Federal Reserve held its key interest steady in a range between 3.5% and 3.75% after a recent run of interest rate cuts.

1 Year: VGT/QQQ 23.3%. S&P 500 17%.

2025: 1 yr and 10 yr

QQQ: 20.8% and 19.4% annualized = $100k > 620

VOO 17.8% and 14.8% = $100k > 400

Apple revenue of $143.8 billion, up 16 percent from a year ago

Google's AI technology would provide the most capable Apple foundation models

Dictation sucks!

Microsoft Cloud revenue was $51.5 billion and increased 26%

Slowing Cloud Growth.

Meta

Up 10% or so?

From Zuck: Play at 3.22: https://www.youtube.com/live/1Tm7gX-WctI?si=i66btpKGlApbuyF5&t=202

Investor Deck

Ending production of S and X in Q1.

Earnings Call:

Elon on CyberCab: Play at 26.15.

Elon on TerraFab: Play here 45.40

Elon on Optimus: Play

• Merger.
• How it would work.
• Tesla Shareholder Allocation.
• Maintaining super voting rights.

Ilhan Omar

US Rep for Minnesota

Ilhan Omar went from a having a -$65,000 net worth in 2019 to $30,000,000 in 2026.

Financial Disclosures required for Congress Persons

2023 Disclosure: $15,000 - $50,000

2024: $1,000,000 - $5,000,000

EstCru LLC Winery

Ilhan Omar Winery. Husband is Tim Mynett

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2016171843992912175

- The website disappeared

- Listings were deleted

- Archives wiped

Excited that Matt Mahan is going to run.

Reformer Machine Workout at YogaSource in Los Gatos.

Indiana. Fernando Mendoza is a truly special.

1 Year: VGT/QQQ 17%. S&P 500 17%.

2025: 1 yr and 10 yr

QQQ: 20.8% and 19.4% = $100k > 620

VOO 17.8% and 14.8% = $100k > 400

VXUS: 32% and 8.5%

Gold and Silver. Great year. 77% and 200%. That’s 3x.

IBIT and Etha: Down 14% and 10%.

Netflix

• Great earnings call.
• 17.6% YoY revenue growth, better than Q4 2024 of 16%.
• Warner Brothers Acquistion is huge overhang. It will help them:
  • IP. Harry Potter, DC Comics, Game of Thrones, Matrix, Sopranos, Succession, Lord of the Rings. Barbie
• HBO!

Lemonade

HIMS.

• Autonomous. Finally pulling the driver out in Austin.
• No longer able to buy FSD outright. Needs to be subscription
• Lemonade cutting premiums by 50% if you drive a Tesla with FSD. Important implications for all car insurers.

Humanoid Robots

• Yes Boston Dynamics and many others particularly in China are great, but…
• Manufacturing, Software, Hardware, ….

Will have more AI compute than all others combined in < 5years! From Elon

The Colossus 2 supercomputer for @Grok is now operational.

First Gigawatt training cluster in the world. Upgrades to 1.5GW in April.

I’m using Gemini and Grok. Perfect combo.

SpaceX will be ~99% of all Earth payload mass to orbit

• I think there will be an allocation to Tesla LT shareholders.
• Could be $1.5T, but could go to $10T.

Wealth Tax

• Wealth Tax. 1 time 5% on Billionairs.
  • No limitations on quantity or $ limit.
• Play Ben Horowitz on wealth tax.
• More taxes is not the answer. Eliminate Fraud, waste and abuse!
• Billionaires ~$8T, everyone else $170t.
• The two Google founders per Gemini represented 23 percent of the aggregate billionaire wealth in CA. Throw in Peter Thiel and well over 30 percent is gone

Video here. https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/2014785916083020062

$23m

• $125k Rover seized
• Home in Greece
• Mansion in LA

Balance the Budget State Audit Report here

Budget Summary

.05% of Californian’s or ~8500 people making over $10m per year pay 25% of the personal income tax liability.

1% of Californian’s pay 49% of Personal Income Tax. $54 billion

• Uhaul Growth Index:

Companies moving out of California

• Rogan
  • Bradley Cooper
  • Ben Affleck and Matt Damon
  • Ethan Hawke
• Tim Ferris and Bill Gurley

Holidays! . Cats and Dogs and Family. Happy Holidays. New Cat named Timmy. Pure trouble and pure JOY!

Coinbase Fraud. Called with automated message asking if I attempted to change my “email contact”. If “no” they said press #1 or otherwise hangup. So I press 1. Some dude is on the line. Says he needs my first and last name to help. I ask him, “how do I even know if you’re real…How do I know you’re Coinbase?”. He hangs up!!! OMG!

Startup Investing

• Rule #1: Be comfortable losing all the money. Might sting, but should not cause you to lose sleep!

Investments for our kids!
Brad Gerstner and Michael Dell at White House.

Fed Regulation of AI. To prevent a 50 state patchwork, onerous system.

Bernie Sanders and other Dems calling for a “halt” on AI and Datacenters!!

Markets S&P 500

Apple

Apple head of AI retiring.

Apple could partner with Gemini. Also, tech is getting so good that Apple will offer privacy!

Netflix

Netflix back in pole-position. I think this is “Good”

• Turnkey studio and ICONIC space.
• IP. Harry Potter, DC Comics, Game of Thrones, Matrix, Sopranos, Succession, Lord of the Rings. Barbie
• HBO!

Tesla AI Chips

Tesla AI Chip and Advanced Engineering from Elon.

Elon tweeing/xing tried and trying to help legacy automakers, but they want a pilot program that starts in like 5 years!

This video of Optimus jogging is insane. Should double the market cap!

TSLZ

When Starship is launching several times a day in a few years, SpaceX will be ~99% of all Earth payload mass to orbit, even if the others triple their current launch rate. https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1994518037614268565?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-g

Drug Trade

https://open.spotify.com/episode/65oG0YARECbXnFCbv2PTZp

David Sacks is a highly successful business person that is serving our government well and we should all be thankful.

From Chamath on the Topic.

Tim Waltz Fraud.

• String on X and
• And another one

California Budget Crisis - Wealth Tax

200 billionaires are on Zillow right now!

• Molly’s Game (interview on All-In).
• Movie: The Spy Who Dumped Me.
• Bill Gurley on ferris
• Sean RYan Show with Tobi Ludke and Jocko
• Ethan Hawk

Grok and AI

Golf

• Click Stick
• Full Swing Golf Monitor
• Fairway ~60%, 8ft putt 50%, green in Regulation: 175-200yds = 50%. 150-175yds = 63%

Trump

• Big Dinner with Trump and moguls. Ronaldo. Elon. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia
• Trump with Mamdani
• “Shared purpose of serving New Yorkers and how to help with affordability”
• Fascist?
• INSPIRING

Political Absurdity

My Post on X. Politicians and Investing

"They’ve got the WORST policies. But I don’t talk about them. Because if I talk about it, they might change."

Larry Summers - Secretary of Treasury.

• Summers resigned his seat on the OpenAI board.
• Then Harvard announced it would take a fresh look at his and other faculty members’ ties to Epstein.
• The immediate cause of Summers’s undoing was the release of a passel of messages in which he asked advice from his friend Epstein on “getting horizontal” with a woman he was pursuing.
• “She’s already beginning to sound needy :) nice,” Epstein noted

Bought:

• Tesla Down 20%
• Meta Down 26%
• VOO Down ~5%

Bitcoin

• $125,000 in October
• $87,000 today
• Down $38k or 30%

My Financial Acronyms

FATMAANN. Up 160% (85% without Nvidia), compared to S&P 57%

Facebook, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Netflix, Nvidia

TAMPAN

Born: Nov 6, 2025

Tesla, Amazon, Meta, Palantir, Apple, Nvidia

NVIDIA Earnings Q3 2025

• Record revenue for the third quarter ended October 26, 2025, of $57.0 billion, up 22% from the previous quarter and up 62% from a year ago.

US Saudi Investment Forum. Full interview here. Elon and Jensen Huang.

Play at 7.37Work will be optional. Elon Musk says if current AI and robotics trends continue "money will stop being relevant in the future." Then to Jensen. Hahaha

Play at 14.50. Elon and Jenson announcing 500 mw or gw? Gazillion $’s. HaHaHa

Play at 18.35. AI in Space.

• Per WSJ Bids for Warner Brothers.
  • At the same time, Warner Discovery continues to move forward with plans to separate its assets into two companies: one to house its studios and streaming business, and the other comprising its cable networks
• Stock Split. 10:1

• Get a hobby
• Restrung my guitar
• Writing a rhythm, lead and lyrics to a song

Agenda:

• Golf
• Tesla & Robots
• Political statement absurdity.

Iphone. Apple at $273

Shutdown. Politicians should forgo paychecks.

Nelly Korda vs Grant Horvat. He is a +3 and gave her a 5 shot lead to start. She still won.

Kai Trump set to play in first LPGA event.

Paige Spirinac cheating by stomping grass. You must not take deliberate actions to improve the position or lie of your ball, or the area of your intended stance or swing, by altering physical conditions.

Blue Origin Landed Booster

Encyclopedia Galactica

S&P500 Up 16%, ~2% off high

Tech: Up 20%, ~5% off high

• Play at 58.18. Robots
• Play at 1:14.50. Manufacturing Robots.

Robotics: Prediction of how USA vs China in Humanoid robotics will go over the next few years

1. This is analogous to SpaceX. 86% of Global cargo
2. Tesla is our only hope for Robots
   1. General Intelligence Era (Robots work and encompass AGI).
   2. More Robots than humans by 2045. TAM = $200 trillion

Glass Lewis and ISS facing antitrust probe.

White House looking at rules to curb their influence.

Bill Gurley: I’ll say it again - boards that don’t move could be sued in Delaware for staying - and exposing shareholders to uncapped securities claims.

Tesla outsold in Revenue the top 20 companies

• September Sales #1 and #2 in the World.

Ford on Tesla

• Remember Ford $13 billion loss on EVs since 2023
• 1.6km of wires more!

Politician’s Absurdity

PlayThis video is great. Government kills affordability of everything it touches!

This video by Roland Gutierrez is a perfect summary of why socialism is pretty much evil.

Economic impact of Elon Musk. Last 4 years.

• Salaries: $110 Billion
• Taxes: $46 billion
• Vendors: $173 B

California working on 5% tax “1-time” tax on wealth over $1Billion.

Irony and Paradox of people saying: Company over-valued and comp package is too high

• Billy Bob Thorton on Joe Rogan
• Miles Teller on Theo
• Russel Crowe on Joe Rogan.

TAMPAN: Tesla, Amazon, Meta, Palantir, Apple, Nvidia

Competition with xPeng?

Compensation Plan

Live streaming Shareholder meeting.

“1 Trillion pay package!!”

Proxy here

Rules:

• 12 Tranches. 12 Market Cap + 12 Operational
• Term: 10 years!
• Award: 1% of shares in form of RSU.
• Vest on (a) the Market Capitalization Milestone for such tranche and (b) a previously unmet Operational Milestone.

12 Market Capitalization Milestones:

• 1: $2 trillion
• 2-10: $500 billion (to $6.5 trillion)
• 11-12: $1 trillion (to $7.5 and $8.5 trillion

12 Operational Milestones

Product Goals

1. 20 Million Tesla Vehicles Delivered
2. 10 Million Active FSD Subscriptions
3. 1 Million Bots Delivered
4. 1 Million Robotaxis in Commercial Operation

Adjusted EBITDA Milestones. 1-8 $50 to $400b.

ETF ownership and voting rights

Ford

Ford executives might scrap the electric version of its F-150 pickup

Ford has $13 billion in EV losses

% of Global EV Sales

• 25.7m BEV sales since 2019
• 7.3m is Tesla

Lucid ranks #3 most cash burning EV maker globally with total reported cash burn of $14.4B behind Rivian $23.2 billion and Ford's EV segment $15.5 billion.

Earnings Page

Play Alex’s opening remarks!

“114% Rule of 40 score! What Is the Rule of 40?Core Formula: Rev Growth + operating Margin

Alex Letter to Shareholders

Some of our detractors have been left in a kind of deranged and self-destructive befuddlement.🤣

Orson Welles, “The enemy of art is the absence of limitations.”

• KPop Demon Hunters
• 325 million views
• $10b kpop industry
• Black Pink Tour. Highest grossing tour by female group
• Warner Brothers
• Licensing Video podcasts from Sirius

New York City Mayor is Responsible For

• Public Safety: Fire and 30,000 police officers.
• Education
• Public Services and Infrastructure
• Housing and Economic Development
• Health and Social Services
• Cultural and Community Services
• City Planning and Regulation
• Appointments and Budget

The New York City budget $115.9 billion

• Real Property Taxes: ~$34.97 billion
• Personal Income Taxes $17.28 billion
• Business Income Taxes: ~$11.95 billion
• Sales Taxes: ~$9.5 billion
• State Categorical Grants: ~$7 billion
• Federal Categorical Grants: ~$6.5 billion

Top 1-5% contribute ~$1.7-$3.5 billion in FY 2025, equating to ~1.5-3% of the total budget.

1929 book on Audio.

The Diplomat

Elon on Joe Rogan

"The enemy of art is the absence of limitations"

Wealth Management can be a scam. Spoke to a 35-year old paying XX 1.5% a year to manage his $5.5M. If he keeps going until retirement, he'll end up paying $6M in fees and end with ~$14M less than using a Vanguard ETF

AI: I was completely honest. I said I just typed it into AI. if you're not using AI now you're stupid.

Gambling:

Chauncey Billips arrested!!

Fed Rate Cut

• The latest quarter-point cut will reduce the Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate to between 3.75% and 4%
• Effects Money Market almost immediately. VMFXX's 7-day yield 4.05% and SPAXX.
• Juices economy. Less expensive to borrow, so can invest, build etc..

Apple

Slow to AI. But will figure it out. iPhone 17 awesome.

Meta

• Earning Results
• Revenue $50b. Record!
• UCAN 43% (Side note…S&P 500 is international).
• CapEx $50b YTD vs $24b last year. Double!!!
• Stock down 11%

Amazon

• Up 10% plus in after-hours.
• $180b in the quarter
• I’ll never sell:
  • Package everyday.
  • Andy Jasse
  • Memo culture

Tesla Earnings.

• Record Revenue. $28b.
• Energy up 44% !!!!
  • Revenue $3.4b and $2.3 cost. $1b in profit
  • US grid is only 50% productive. Can double with batteries.
• Other Services up 25%.

Elon Remarks. Play at 11.00 Play thur 15.00

• Leader in Realworld AI. Shockwave

Dan Ives:

No Drivers in Austin prior to year end. Taking a VERY conservative strategy!

PLAY Jensen Huang on the importance of of Palantir and their ontology stack

Alex and Jensen speaking together.

Autonomous Driving

NVIDIA Drive Software

NEWS: Nvidia today announced it is partnering with Uber to help build the "world’s largest Level 4 autonomous fleet, targeting 100,000 Robotaxis starting in 2027.

Earnings Letter

Earnings Call

Highlights:

• Talked about personalized ad targeting. THIS IS HUGE!
• KPop Demon Hunters, which is now our most popular film ever (325M views)
  • Top 10 movies here.
• Sharing view % growing
• Why Netflix?
• Grown organically. WB and other mergers/acquisitions are a mess: Cultural and bureaucratic. Same core execs: Ted, Greg and David!
• Perfect mix of creative and Tech. No-one even close in tech. This helps ad money!

Revenue and YoY % growth by Region:

• UCAN: $5.1b17%
• EMEA:$3.7b18%
• LatAm: $1.4b10%
• APAC $1.4b21%

~43-45% of Revenue is US

• Gov of Illinois Pritzker. $1.4m in gambling
• Sen Jon Fetterman making “based” comments.

Up Next

• Palmer Lucky on Joe Rogan
• Breaking 50 with Steph and

Security

• US Bank Sharing:
  • Coinbase
  • Carta
  • Intuit

Yes there could be a crash. But remember economy is not same as Stock Market

Gold/Silver/Bitcoin

• Debasement of Fiat?
• Sign of mania!?
• Foreign governments buying.

Nvidia

• Jensen Huang 50 direct Reports. From 2023
• Every employee should have AI agents. Multiplying productivity by 10 to 100 X.

Leverage in Crypto.

Last Friday: Bitcoin dropped ~$121k - 110. So 10%.

Crypto Bets

$19b wiped out.

2 Accounts made $160m placing bets minutes before Trump News of China.

Leverage in Crypto Exchange

Reports: Specifically, around 1.6 million traders across major exchanges (including Binance) got wiped out on their leveraged positions, with over $19 billion in total liquidations in just hours

From TeslaBoomerMom on the Court proceeding on Wed Oct 15.

$345m in legal fees!

EV Adoption Globally

From the WSJ

China EV Sales

General Motors issues profit warning - $1.6 billion hit from EV overcapacity. @GM GM just filed a form 8-K informing that it "approved charges of $1.6 billion in GM North America in the three months ended September 30, 2025".

Tesla FSD

• MadMax mode. OMG
• 60 minutes to do a hit piece.

Joe Rogan: John Kiriakou is a former CIA counter-terrorism officer and the first U.S. official to confirm the agency's torture of detainees. Punished for being a whistleblower, he served nearly 2 years in a federal prison.

1929 book