The US consumer has proved to be more resilient than expected, supported by a constructive employment backdrop, income growth and rising household wealth. But beneath that aggregate strength, behaviour is shifting. Consumers are becoming more selective, and their ability to absorb further inflation is becoming increasingly divided by income.

In this episode of the Barclays Brief, host Ronnie Wexler speaks with Priya Ohri-Gupta, Head of US High Grade Research and US Consumer Credit Research Analyst, about the state of US consumer resilience and why it is increasingly uneven.

They explore the emergence of a two-speed consumer economy, with higher-income households supported by wealth creation while lower-income consumers face greater pressure on their ability to spend. At the same time, consumers across the board are becoming more deliberate about where their money goes, seeking value and trading down.

Ronnie Wexler and Priya Ohri-Gupta also consider the signals that could point to weakening demand, and how inflationary pressures currently being absorbed by retailers could test resilience into 2027.

As US consumers become more selective, investors may need to follow suit. With the important holiday spending period approaching, Ohri-Gupta considers the characteristics that could differentiate consumer and retail businesses as spending patterns evolve.

Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​

• Negative headlines, resilient markets

• US Rates: Higher for longer

• Do high gas prices change how Americans buy cars?

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​

• State of the US consumer: The consumer who won't quit

Important Content Disclosures

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.

Ahead of the UK Autumn Budget, the consensus view is that higher borrowing costs and a weaker fiscal backdrop have left the Chancellor of the Exchequer with little room to manoeuvre. But what if markets are focusing on the wrong part of the story?

In this episode of the Barclays Brief, host Patrick Coffey sits down with Jack Meaning, Chief UK Economist at Barclays, to examine why expectations of a sharp squeeze of the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom may be overstated. While higher gilt yields have dominated the debate, stronger nominal earnings and tax receipts could leave the Chancellor in a more resilient position than many investors assume, at least for now.

The conversation explores the outlook for inflation, interest rates and the UK Budget, alongside signs of stronger business investment, the potential productivity benefits of AI and why the UK may be emerging as a relative source of stability in Europe.

For investors, businesses and households alike, the key question is whether the prevailing narrative on the UK has become too negative and what that could mean for growth, markets and policy in the months ahead.

This episode was recorded on Wednesday 7 October at 10:30am British Summer Time.

Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​

• Brexit, Burnham and Britain's next decade

• French bonds: OAT of control

• Do debt managers or markets set the price of long bonds?

Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​

• Headwinds on the horizon

• The direct fiscal effects of quantitative easing and tightening

• UK Rates Strategy: Chancellor Healey meets the bond market: ‘let sleeping dogs lie’

Important Content Disclosures

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.

French government bonds, or OATs, are under growing pressure. While rising yields reflect a broader sell-off across European markets, concerns over France’s fiscal trajectory and political uncertainty are driving an additional risk premium.

In this episode of Barclays Brief, host Patrick Coffey is joined by Rohan Khanna, Head of European Rates Strategy, to examine why investors are demanding greater clarity before returning to French debt. They consider how persistent budget deficits, substantial debt issuance and political fragmentation have contributed to the widening OAT-Bund spread, and why the 2027 presidential and parliamentary elections will be critical for market confidence.

Khanna also draws an important distinction for investors: the pressure on French bonds reflects a repricing of France’s fiscal and political risk, not a repeat of the 2011–12 eurozone debt crisis. Looking ahead, attention will turn to whether the next administration will have the willingness and ability to address France’s fiscal trajectory. Until there is greater clarity, volatility may persist and investors could continue to demand a higher risk premium for holding French debt.

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:

• French banks: Standing OAT of the crowd
• Euro Area: Rates Strategy - OAT of the frying pan into the fire
• Macro x Politics: Not just another French election
• Thinking Macro: Three stories. Not one.

Listeners can also explore the topic further:

• US Rates: Higher for longer
• Decoding the bond sell-off
• European rates: Inflation & AI waves collide

Important Content Disclosures