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Superforecasting

The Art and Science of Prediction
Sprecher: Joel Richards
Spieldauer: 9 Std. und 45 Min.
4.5 out of 5 stars (86 Bewertungen)

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Inhaltsangabe

From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio.

©2015 Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc. (P)2015 Audible, Inc.

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    4 out of 5 stars
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    3 out of 5 stars

Nur Anekdoten, keine Substanz

Das Autorengespann verfügt zwar über umfassende Erfahrungen in diesem Gebiet, aber schafft es leider nicht einen "Roten Faden" für das Buch zu entwickeln, weil man zwar einerseits ganz viele Einzelbeispiele bringen möchte, aber andererseits dann doch nicht wirklich auf die Grundlagen eingehen will, um diese zu erklären. So entsteht ein erzählerischer Zick-Zack-Kurs, der am Ende zu nichts führt und genauso unverbindlich bleibt, wie viele der Vorhersagen, um die sich dieses Buch dreht. Die Anlagen für ein gutes und interessantes Buch sind erkennbar, aber es fehlt einfach der Mut zu etwas mehr wissenschaftlichen Tiefgang, um mehr als anekdotisches Oberflächenwissen zu liefern.

  • Gesamt
    5 out of 5 stars
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    5 out of 5 stars
  • Geschichte
    5 out of 5 stars
  • TM
  • 18.09.2018

brilliant

Clear. Well written. Valuable information proven. The author doesn't make points without proving it in a way that is conceivable for the layman. What I love most is that the author encourages you to test his points and in doing this is able to explain his points further. Wonderful.

  • Gesamt
    5 out of 5 stars
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    5 out of 5 stars
  • Geschichte
    5 out of 5 stars

A should read

in our prediction driven world you should read this book to improve your understanding of forecasts.

  • Gesamt
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Sprecher
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Geschichte
    5 out of 5 stars

very interesting

A well written and highly interesting book, informative and entertaining at the same time! It is not too difficult for people without scientific background to understand, so i can recommend it to anyone interested in the topic, regardless of educational background.

  • Gesamt
    5 out of 5 stars
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    5 out of 5 stars
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    5 out of 5 stars

It was good. Thanks!

I liked the optimistic and pragmatic attitude of the author, although I am a forecasting sceptic. Good contribution! Thanks!

  • Gesamt
    4 out of 5 stars
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    5 out of 5 stars
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    4 out of 5 stars

peek with open mind and eyes into the future

If you have never heard before about the good judgement project, this book is really a good read. It is the story on how inquisitiveness and an open mind void of biases allows every person to get the foresight. If these qualities are combined with the right portion of obsessive behaviour, superforecasters with impressive Brier scores come to the stage. Apart from the "howto" part, the book also contains interesting "faits divers": you knew that there are forecasting competitions, what the essence of the wisdom of the crowds was and that these methods are extensively used in intelligence gathering. The book also has some guest appearences: Daniel Kahneman to enumerate the biases in the human mind and Nasim Taleb as a Deus ex machina destroying some of the superforecasting efforts with his black swans. On the whole a good mix, narrated in a good Audible production.