Jetzt kostenlos testen
-
Expert Political Judgment
- How Good is it? How can We Know?
- Gesprochen von: Anthony Haden Salerno
- Spieldauer: 9 Std. und 48 Min.
- Kategorien: Gesundheit & Wellness, Seelische & Geistige Gesundheit

Bist du Amazon Prime-Mitglied?
Audible 60 Tage kostenlos testenInhaltsangabe
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This audiobook fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting.
Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox - the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events - is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems.
He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgment and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits - the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the audiobook fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.
Hörer, die diesen Titel gekauft haben, kauften auch…
-
Why Nations Fail
- The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty
- Geschrieben von: Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinson
- Gesprochen von: Dan Woren
- Spieldauer: 17 Std. und 55 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
Brilliant and engagingly written, Why Nations Fail answers the question that has stumped the experts for centuries: Why are some nations rich and others poor, divided by wealth and poverty, health and sickness, food and famine?
-
-
Hochinformativ und spannend
- Von Wildwasser Am hilfreichsten 04.06.2015
-
Sichere Prognosen in unsicheren Zeiten
- Wer die Gegenwart richtig liest, kann in die Zukunft schauen
- Geschrieben von: Bruno Jahn
- Gesprochen von: Jan Koester
- Spieldauer: 9 Std. und 16 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
Was die Zukunft mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit bringen wird, kann man treffsicher vorhersagen. Dazu muss man kein Experte sein. Der Superforecaster Bruno Jahn erklärt, was die Kunst der Prognose ausmacht, wie sie in Politik und Wirtschaft angewandt wird - und wie jeder von uns seine Vorhersage-Fähigkeit deutlich verbessern kann. Zukünftige Ereignisse mit deutlich höherer Wahrscheinlichkeit vorherzusagen als Experten können weltweit nur wenige. Bruno Jahn gehört zu diesen Superforecastern. In seinem Hörbuch erklärt der deutsche "Super", was Menschen wie ihn in ihrer Denkweise auszeichnet.
-
-
Langweiliger linker Dreck.
- Von Mittelmeerpirat Am hilfreichsten 23.08.2019
-
The Selfish Gene
- Geschrieben von: Richard Dawkins
- Gesprochen von: Richard Dawkins, Lalla Ward
- Spieldauer: 16 Std. und 12 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
Richard Dawkins' brilliant reformulation of the theory of natural selection has the rare distinction of having provoked as much excitement and interest outside the scientific community as within it. His theories have helped change the whole nature of the study of social biology, and have forced thousands to rethink their beliefs about life.
-
-
A classic and must read
- Von Henrik Am hilfreichsten 18.03.2017
-
The Anarchy
- The Relentless Rise of the East India Company
- Geschrieben von: William Dalrymple
- Gesprochen von: Sid Sagar
- Spieldauer: 15 Std. und 43 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
The Anarchy tells the remarkable story of how one of the world’s most magnificent empires disintegrated and came to be replaced by a dangerously unregulated private company, based thousands of miles overseas in one small office, five windows wide, and answerable only to its distant shareholders. In his most ambitious and riveting audiobook to date, William Dalrymple tells the story of the East India Company as it has never been told before, unfolding a timely cautionary tale of the first global corporate power.
-
-
Great story, thrilling and informative.
- Von bb212 Am hilfreichsten 17.01.2021
-
The Book of Why
- The New Science of Cause and Effect
- Geschrieben von: Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie
- Gesprochen von: Mel Foster
- Spieldauer: 15 Std. und 14 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
"Correlation does not imply causation". This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality - the study of cause and effect - on a firm scientific basis.
-
-
Diagrams
- Von Klaus Am hilfreichsten 03.09.2018
-
The True Believer
- Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements (Perennial Classics)
- Geschrieben von: Eric Hoffer
- Gesprochen von: Charles Osborne
- Spieldauer: 6 Std. und 8 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
A stevedore on the San Francisco docks in the 1940s, Eric Hoffer wrote philosophical treatises in his spare time while living in the railroad yards. The True Believer - the first and most famous of his books - was made into a best seller when President Eisenhower cited it during one of the earliest television press conferences.
-
Why Nations Fail
- The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty
- Geschrieben von: Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinson
- Gesprochen von: Dan Woren
- Spieldauer: 17 Std. und 55 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
Brilliant and engagingly written, Why Nations Fail answers the question that has stumped the experts for centuries: Why are some nations rich and others poor, divided by wealth and poverty, health and sickness, food and famine?
-
-
Hochinformativ und spannend
- Von Wildwasser Am hilfreichsten 04.06.2015
-
Sichere Prognosen in unsicheren Zeiten
- Wer die Gegenwart richtig liest, kann in die Zukunft schauen
- Geschrieben von: Bruno Jahn
- Gesprochen von: Jan Koester
- Spieldauer: 9 Std. und 16 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
Was die Zukunft mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit bringen wird, kann man treffsicher vorhersagen. Dazu muss man kein Experte sein. Der Superforecaster Bruno Jahn erklärt, was die Kunst der Prognose ausmacht, wie sie in Politik und Wirtschaft angewandt wird - und wie jeder von uns seine Vorhersage-Fähigkeit deutlich verbessern kann. Zukünftige Ereignisse mit deutlich höherer Wahrscheinlichkeit vorherzusagen als Experten können weltweit nur wenige. Bruno Jahn gehört zu diesen Superforecastern. In seinem Hörbuch erklärt der deutsche "Super", was Menschen wie ihn in ihrer Denkweise auszeichnet.
-
-
Langweiliger linker Dreck.
- Von Mittelmeerpirat Am hilfreichsten 23.08.2019
-
The Selfish Gene
- Geschrieben von: Richard Dawkins
- Gesprochen von: Richard Dawkins, Lalla Ward
- Spieldauer: 16 Std. und 12 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
Richard Dawkins' brilliant reformulation of the theory of natural selection has the rare distinction of having provoked as much excitement and interest outside the scientific community as within it. His theories have helped change the whole nature of the study of social biology, and have forced thousands to rethink their beliefs about life.
-
-
A classic and must read
- Von Henrik Am hilfreichsten 18.03.2017
-
The Anarchy
- The Relentless Rise of the East India Company
- Geschrieben von: William Dalrymple
- Gesprochen von: Sid Sagar
- Spieldauer: 15 Std. und 43 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
The Anarchy tells the remarkable story of how one of the world’s most magnificent empires disintegrated and came to be replaced by a dangerously unregulated private company, based thousands of miles overseas in one small office, five windows wide, and answerable only to its distant shareholders. In his most ambitious and riveting audiobook to date, William Dalrymple tells the story of the East India Company as it has never been told before, unfolding a timely cautionary tale of the first global corporate power.
-
-
Great story, thrilling and informative.
- Von bb212 Am hilfreichsten 17.01.2021
-
The Book of Why
- The New Science of Cause and Effect
- Geschrieben von: Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie
- Gesprochen von: Mel Foster
- Spieldauer: 15 Std. und 14 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
"Correlation does not imply causation". This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality - the study of cause and effect - on a firm scientific basis.
-
-
Diagrams
- Von Klaus Am hilfreichsten 03.09.2018
-
The True Believer
- Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements (Perennial Classics)
- Geschrieben von: Eric Hoffer
- Gesprochen von: Charles Osborne
- Spieldauer: 6 Std. und 8 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
A stevedore on the San Francisco docks in the 1940s, Eric Hoffer wrote philosophical treatises in his spare time while living in the railroad yards. The True Believer - the first and most famous of his books - was made into a best seller when President Eisenhower cited it during one of the earliest television press conferences.
-
Fooled by Randomness
- The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- Geschrieben von: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- Gesprochen von: Sean Pratt
- Spieldauer: 10 Std. und 3 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work, and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.
-
-
Unnötig
- Von Amazon Kunde Am hilfreichsten 02.01.2021
-
Kaufen oder mieten? Wie Sie für sich die richtige Entscheidung treffen
- Geschrieben von: Gerd Kommer
- Gesprochen von: Sebastian Pappenberger
- Spieldauer: 6 Std. und 54 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
Schlauer als Makler und Bankberater. Seit dem Crash auf den Finanzmärkten blüht das Geschäft mit Immobilien. Großstädte werden leergekauft, wo noch ein Plätzchen frei ist, wird neu gebaut. Aber lohnt sich die Anlage in Immobilien für jeden? Gerd Kommer mahnt zur Skepsis. In der Neuauflage seines Standardwerks lehrt er die Leser das Rechnen. Denn ein Angebot, das zu gut klingt, um wahr zu sein, hat meistens einen Haken. Wer mit Kommers Know-how gerüstet ist und mit dem Online-Rechentool das Angebot überprüft, kann (fast) nicht übers Ohr gehauen werden. Und gewinnt noch dazu gute Argumente für weitere Verhandlungen.
-
-
Zu komplex als Hörbuch
- Von Bayer Am hilfreichsten 24.02.2019
-
The Hacker and the State
- Cyber Attacks and the New Normal of Geopolitics
- Geschrieben von: Ben Buchanan
- Gesprochen von: Christopher Grove
- Spieldauer: 11 Std. und 19 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
Packed with insider information based on interviews, declassified files, and forensic analysis of company reports, The Hacker and the State sets aside fantasies of cyber-annihilation to explore the real geopolitical competition of the digital age. Tracing the conflict of wills and interests among modern nations, Ben Buchanan reveals little-known details of how China, Russia, North Korea, Britain, and the United States hack one another in a relentless struggle for dominance.
-
Influence
- The Psychology of Persuasion
- Geschrieben von: Robert B. Cialdini
- Gesprochen von: George Newbern
- Spieldauer: 10 Std. und 6 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
Influence, the classic book on persuasion, explains the psychology of why people say yes - and how to apply these understandings. Dr. Robert Cialdini is the seminal expert in the rapidly expanding field of influence and persuasion. His 35 years of rigorous, evidence-based research, along with a three-year program of study on what moves people to change behavior, has resulted in this highly acclaimed book. You'll learn the six universal principles, how to use them to become a skilled persuader - and how to defend yourself against them.
-
-
Absolutely
- Von Mozambique Drills Am hilfreichsten 13.12.2017
-
Apocalypse Never
- Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All
- Geschrieben von: Michael Shellenberger
- Gesprochen von: Stephen Graybill
- Spieldauer: 12 Std. und 18 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
Michael Shellenberger has been fighting for a greener planet for decades. He helped save the world’s last unprotected redwoods. He co-created the predecessor to today’s Green New Deal. And he led a successful effort by climate scientists and activists to keep nuclear plants operating, preventing a spike of emissions. But in 2019, as some claimed "billions of people are going to die", contributing to rising anxiety, including among adolescents, Shellenberger decided that he needed to speak out to separate science from fiction.
-
-
missinformation and denial
- Von Jule Roberts Am hilfreichsten 06.10.2020
-
Enlightenment Now
- The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress
- Geschrieben von: Steven Pinker
- Gesprochen von: Arthur Morey
- Spieldauer: 19 Std. und 49 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
If you follow the headlines, the world in the 21st century appears to be sinking into chaos, hatred and irrationality. Yet, as Steven Pinker shows, if you follow the trendlines, you discover that our lives have become longer, healthier, safer and more prosperous - not just in the West but worldwide. Such progress is no accident: it's the gift of a coherent value system that many of us embrace without even realising it. These are the values of the Enlightenment: of reason, science, humanism and progress.
-
-
Ein Augenöffner!!!
- Von Amazon Kunde Am hilfreichsten 30.11.2018
-
The Madness of Crowds
- Gender, Race and Identity
- Geschrieben von: Douglas Murray
- Gesprochen von: Douglas Murray
- Spieldauer: 11 Std. und 56 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
In The Madness of Crowds Douglas Murray investigates the dangers of ‘woke’ culture and the rise of identity politics. In lively, razor-sharp prose he examines the most controversial issues of our moment: sexuality, gender, technology and race, with interludes on the Marxist foundations of ‘wokeness’, the impact of tech and how, in an increasingly online culture, we must relearn the ability to forgive.
-
-
A Voice of Reason
- Von TH Am hilfreichsten 26.09.2019
-
Predictably Irrational
- The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions
- Geschrieben von: Dan Ariely
- Gesprochen von: Simon Jones
- Spieldauer: 7 Std. und 22 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
In a series of illuminating, often surprising experiments, MIT behavioral economist Dan Ariely refutes the common assumption that we behave in fundamentally rational ways. Blending everyday experience with groundbreaking research, Ariely explains how expectations, emotions, social norms, and other invisible, seemingly illogical forces skew our reasoning abilities.
-
-
Sehr kurzweilig
- Von Clepsydra Am hilfreichsten 07.12.2008
-
Invisible Women
- Exposing Data Bias in a World Designed for Men
- Geschrieben von: Caroline Criado Perez
- Gesprochen von: Caroline Criado Perez
- Spieldauer: 9 Std. und 24 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
In her new audiobook, Invisible Women, award-winning campaigner and writer Caroline Criado Perez shows us how, in a world largely built for and by men, we are systematically ignoring half the population. She exposes the gender data gap - a gap in our knowledge that is at the root of perpetual, systemic discrimination against women and that has created a pervasive but invisible bias with a profound effect on women’s lives.
-
-
Essential reading/listening!
- Von Uwe Am hilfreichsten 15.12.2019
-
The End of Everything
- (Astrophysically Speaking)
- Geschrieben von: Katie Mack
- Gesprochen von: Gabra Zackman, Katie Mack
- Spieldauer: 6 Std. und 21 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
We know the universe had a beginning. With the big bang, it expanded from a state of unimaginable density to an all-encompassing cosmic fireball to a simmering fluid of matter and energy, laying down the seeds for everything from black holes to one rocky planet orbiting a star near the edge of a spiral galaxy that happened to develop life as we know it. But what happens to the universe at the end of the story? And what does it mean for us now?
-
-
Awesome explanation of the end of everything
- Von Uli V. Am hilfreichsten 17.09.2020
-
A Promised Land
- Geschrieben von: Barack Obama
- Gesprochen von: Barack Obama
- Spieldauer: 29 Std. und 10 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
In the stirring, highly anticipated first volume of his presidential memoirs, Barack Obama tells the story of his improbable odyssey from young man searching for his identity to leader of the free world, describing in strikingly personal detail both his political education and the landmark moments of the first term of his historic presidency - a time of dramatic transformation and turmoil.
-
-
Fühlt sich an, als hätte man selbst kandidiert!
- Von Leseratte Am hilfreichsten 29.11.2020
-
Behave
- Geschrieben von: Robert M Sapolsky
- Gesprochen von: Michael Goldstrom
- Spieldauer: 26 Std. und 27 Min.
- Ungekürztes
-
Gesamt
-
Sprecher
-
Geschichte
We are capable of savage acts of violence but also spectacular feats of kindness: is one side of our nature destined to win out over the other? Every act of human behaviour has multiple layers of causation, spiralling back seconds, minutes, hours, days, months, years, even centuries, right back to the dawn of time and the origins of our species. In the epic sweep of history, how does our biology affect the arc of war and peace, justice and persecution? How have our brains evolved alongside our cultures?
-
-
Great book
- Von Sap Am hilfreichsten 04.01.2021
Das könnte dir auch gefallen
Weitere Titel des Autors
Weitere Titel des Sprechers
Das sagen andere Hörer zu Expert Political Judgment
Rezensionen - mit Klick auf einen der beiden Reiter können Sie die Quelle der Rezensionen bestimmen.
Top 10
Welche Titel finden Audible-HörerInnen besonders gut? Die beliebtesten Hörbücher und Hörspiele aus allen Genres gibt’s hier jeden Monat neu.
Exklusive Podcasts kostenlos für Abonnenten
Exklusive und wöchentlich neue Reportagen, Interviews, Comedy und Hintergrundgeschichten.



SPIEGEL Bestseller
Welche Titel haben es in die SPIEGEL-Bestseller-Liste für Belletristik und Sachbuch geschafft?