Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast, where persistent heavy rains have restricted access to cocoa farms and increased the spread of diseases such as brown rot and black pod. The potential return of El Nino is expected to further reduce flowering, pod quality, and yields during the 2026/27 main crop. Preliminary forecasts suggest production could fall to around 1.8 million tonnes, representing a significant decline from previous seasons. The discussion also highlights that the 2025/26 season recorded a 10.8 percent year on year production decline, while a sharp reduction in mid crop farmgate prices has increased financial pressure on producers and raised concerns about future investment in farm maintenance.
• The outlook for Ghana remains similarly challenging. Lower producer prices, adverse weather, and ongoing financial pressures are expected to weigh on cocoa production and farm management practices. The episode also examines the role of the Ghana Cocoa Board, noting that reduced official producer prices are affecting farmer earnings despite earlier hedging efforts.
• Nigeria is also expected to see lower cocoa output, with production projected to decline because of ageing plantations and climate related challenges. While initiatives such as the distribution of one million hybrid cocoa seedlings aim to improve productivity and disease resistance, structural issues including limited market access continue to constrain long term sector growth.
• Rising ICE certified inventories and weaker cocoa grinding data from Europe and North America indicate softer demand, providing a bearish influence on prices. At the same time, ongoing weather related supply risks across West Africa and the potential impact of El Nino continue to support a more constructive outlook for future supply. The discussion also highlights upcoming European Union sustainability and compliance requirements, which are expected to reshape cocoa sourcing, procurement practices, and global trade flows in the months ahead.