In Season 10, Episode 5 of The Chris Abraham Show, I lay out a theory for why Donald Trump pivots to Iran. This isn’t an episode about Iran’s internal politics so much as it’s an episode about incentives, momentum, and what happens when a leader needs an economic and narrative engine and the preferred domestic plan hits a wall.

About a year ago, I wrote a Substack post arguing that Trump’s big idea wasn’t necessarily invading countries abroad. It was building a domestic “make work” machine: a deportation industrial complex that functions like a WPA-style spending and jobs program aimed squarely at his base. The concept is simple. You hire huge numbers of border and enforcement personnel. You expand detention capacity. You contract transportation at scale. You staff security, logistics, medical care, legal processing, and due process. You build an entire support economy around that infrastructure, the way towns and services cluster around major prison facilities. It becomes a trillion-dollar domestic momentum project, and the people most willing to take those jobs are the people who already support the project politically.

In my view, that domestic plan ran into heavy friction: legal constraints, moral outrage, intense media framing, and constant resistance that made it hard to run at full scale. But the need for momentum doesn’t disappear. The spending machine still wants to move, midterms still loom, and a president who thinks like a businessman and a showman still wants a lever to pull.

So the pivot becomes familiar Plan B: international escalation. Bombing campaigns, expensive munitions, replacement orders, contractor logistics, reserve activation, and the revived atmosphere of terrorism fears and proxy-war paranoia. Whatever you think of the policy merits, this kind of activity reliably drives procurement cycles and absorbs attention. It can also seize the news cycle and reset the political conversation when other stories are dominating.

I also talk about spite as a governing emotion: the “you made me do it” logic that abusers use, repurposed into politics. The subtext becomes, if you had let me run my domestic war economy, I wouldn’t be doing this overseas. Now watch what you forced.

This is a short episode, but it’s the analysis I needed to say out loud after listening to reporting that treated the outcome as shocking. I don’t think it’s shocking. Incentives plus ego plus a hunger for momentum can point in a very predictable direction.

Deportation Industrial Complex Goes Full DWOT

The Deportation Gold Rush

The Deportation Industrial Complex: America’s New WPA

The Deportation New Deal: Escalation's Inevitable Path

Start With the Criminals, End With Everyone

Trump's Spite War