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Golf Improvement Theory – Part 1: Strategy, Decision Trees & Shot Dispersion

If you want to lower your scores, you need more than swing tips — you need better golf strategy and smarter course management.

In Part 1 of our Golf Improvement Theory series, we break down the foundational principles of decision making in golf, including how to use a decision tree, understand your shot dispersion pattern, and make smarter adjustments for lie, slope, and weather.

This episode is about playing golf strategically — not emotionally.

What Is Golf Strategy?

Decision Trees & Shot Dispersion

Most golfers aim at flags. Better players aim based on probability.

In this episode, we explain:

• What a decision tree in golf actually means
• How to use your shot dispersion (your “finger dispersion”) to choose smarter targets
• How elite players think in percentages, not perfect shots
• The connection between strategy, scoring averages, and long-term improvement

Your shot pattern determines your target. Period.

If you’re not building your targets around dispersion, you’re guessing — not strategizing.

How to Adjust for Lie, Slope & Weather

Great course management requires contextual awareness.

We break down how to adjust for:

• Lie conditions (tight, rough, uphill, downhill, sidehill)
• Slope influence on start line and curvature
• Wind adjustments
• Temperature, firmness, and elevation changes
• How environmental variables should modify your decision tree

Golf is not played in a vacuum — and your strategy shouldn’t be either.

Key Golf Improvement Takeaways

• Strategy is applied probability.
• Shot dispersion determines smart targets.
• Decision trees improve consistency and scoring.
• Lie, slope, and weather always influence execution.
• Better decisions lead to lower scores — even without swing changes.

This is Part 1 of the Golf Improvement Theory series on The Golf Intervention. In upcoming episodes, we’ll layer in skill development and swing execution to complete the performance model.

If you care about golf strategy, course management, and lowering your handicap, this episode sets the foundation.