Trump is escalating his threats against Iran again, but he’s doing it after already showing exactly how far he was willing to go last time. Right, so Donald Trump is escalating the threats against Iran again. The language has hardened, the plans are back in circulation, the warnings are bigger, louder, more absolute and the machinery is being spun up as if this is the first time he’s done it all over again. But it isn’t. All of this is happening after an alleged strike was already prepared, talked up, and then either not authorised or called off at the last minute, depending on source, so is this more of the same now? Whether it is or not, it blows a hole straight through the idea that you can say the same thing again, louder, and pretend nothing happened in between, it’s like an inverse boy who cried wolf moment. Escalation was taken right to the point where it’s supposed to turn into action, and then it didn’t. So can we take Trump seriously this time? Should we? Probably safer to than not, but if it all gets watered down again, we shouldn’t be that surprised either. But with more assets en route to the Middle East all at the same time, is there a genuine difference this time? Right, so Donald Trump has ordered the military to draw up new strike plans against Iran. Carrier groups and air assets are moving to the region already, but now the language has hardened again, and talk of “wiping Iran from the face of the Earth” has been Trump’s latest refrain. The USS Abraham Lincoln has been redeployed, refuelling tankers and fighter squadrons have been repositioned as well now, and the White House is allowing the impression of imminence to hang in the air. This is not the same moment as the strike that was prepared and then pulled back earlier. It’s a new escalation returning after that decision. Trump flip-flopping over striking Iran, like that’s a calm and rational position. Everything unfolding now is happening in the shadow of the last time the line was reached and not crossed, begging the question as to whether this time it will. Iran has responded accordingly. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi did not issue a screaming denunciation or an emotional threat as perhaps western media might prefer. He didn’t shout. He didn’t posture. He set the terms and moved on. Maximum pressure had run its course, restraint wasn’t on offer anymore, and if Iran was hit, it would respond. That’s not how you talk if you think bombs are about to fall. That’s how you talk when you think the test already happened and you held. His language doesn’t dare Washington to act, it assumes Washington already showed its hand, and it shuts the door on the idea that saying it louder will fix that. The same logic runs through the assassination threats aimed at Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.