Monday’s card is built on usage shifts, fatigue, and trench math — three different sports, one consistent edge.

Derrick White OVER 23.5 Points (-125) — Celtics at Pacers

With Jaylen Brown doubtful, Boston’s offense needs a primary scorer — and Derrick White becomes the power source. In this setup, White’s usage and minutes spike (projected ~36+), and Indiana’s drop coverage is a pull-up buffet for guards. Add pace and frequent trips to the line, and 23.5 undershoots his role-adjusted projection (~28).

Toronto Raptors +3.5 (-110) — 76ers at Raptors

Toronto just beat Philly in OT while shooting 15.6% from three — winning while actively sabotaging themselves. That’s not repeatable… but the bounce-back is. Philly remains without Embiid and Paul George, leaving Maxey to carry a massive load again after a 44-minute effort and 22 team turnovers in the opener. Same building, younger legs, and the hook = value.

Houston Texans -3 (-102) — Texans at Steelers

Pittsburgh’s run defense collapsed down the stretch (489 rush yards, 6 rush TDs allowed over the final two games). Houston doesn’t need creativity — just volume, script control, and an elite defensive profile to shrink Pittsburgh’s options. If Rodgers has to win this with movement, that’s a Texans-friendly outcome. Lay the field goal.

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