Jan 10 picks: Chelsea -1.5, Rams–Panthers Under 46.5, and Bears ML — three edges built on territory, weather, and trenches.

Welcome back to Analytical Edge — where we price the game, not the logo.

Chelsea -1.5 at Charlton

Chelsea’s “crisis” is mostly narrative. The underlying chance creation edge still favors the Blues, and a new-manager debut typically brings maximum effort and aggressive front-foot football. Charlton’s back line is thin, and if Chelsea score first, the natural script becomes territory, waves of chances, and a two-goal margin.

Rams at Panthers — UNDER 46.5

Charlotte wind and rain compress scoring and remove explosives. This shapes into a Kyren Williams clock-eater with fewer downfield attempts and more drive stalls. The previous meeting got juiced by fluky splash plays — not a repeatable blueprint. Weather + pace + field-position football points toward a grind.

Packers at Bears — Bears ML (+105)

January Soldier Field turns games into trench fights. In low-scoring environments, plus-money home sides gain real value because one bounce, one kick, or one short field flips outcomes. Chicago’s 2-back approach shortens the game and keeps possessions tight, which is exactly what you want when holding +money.

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