In this session, we break down one of the most confusing experiences in markets: why prices often move in the opposite direction of the headlines. Central banks hike rates and currencies fall, weak economic data hits and equities rally, or bullish oil deals are signed and prices drop. This episode explains why that happens and how to stop being caught off guard.

The discussion introduces the three-step analysis process, a practical framework designed to help traders and investors move from reacting to news toward anticipating market reactions. The focus is not on predicting data releases, but on understanding what the market already expects, how surprises are defined, and why expectations matter more than the headline itself.

You’ll learn how to identify the baseline using consensus forecasts and market pricing tools, how to spot probable surprises that actually matter, and how to judge whether a move is short-term noise or a seismic shift that changes the broader macro narrative. The episode also explains why markets often ignore “good” or “bad” data, how central bank language can matter more than rate decisions, and why volatility tends to explode when expectations are misaligned.

The final section ties everything together, showing how this framework helps reduce emotional decision-making, avoid chasing headlines, and size risk more intelligently around major events like central bank meetings and key economic releases.

This episode is part of a structured macro fundamentals series designed for traders, investors, and anyone looking to better understand how markets really react to news.

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