The US consumer has proved to be more resilient than expected, supported by a constructive employment backdrop, income growth and rising household wealth. But beneath that aggregate strength, behaviour is shifting. Consumers are becoming more selective, and their ability to absorb further inflation is becoming increasingly divided by income.

In this episode of the Barclays Brief, host Ronnie Wexler speaks with Priya Ohri-Gupta, Head of US High Grade Research and US Consumer Credit Research Analyst, about the state of US consumer resilience and why it is increasingly uneven.

They explore the emergence of a two-speed consumer economy, with higher-income households supported by wealth creation while lower-income consumers face greater pressure on their ability to spend. At the same time, consumers across the board are becoming more deliberate about where their money goes, seeking value and trading down.

Ronnie Wexler and Priya Ohri-Gupta also consider the signals that could point to weakening demand, and how inflationary pressures currently being absorbed by retailers could test resilience into 2027.

As US consumers become more selective, investors may need to follow suit. With the important holiday spending period approaching, Ohri-Gupta considers the characteristics that could differentiate consumer and retail businesses as spending patterns evolve.

Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​

• Negative headlines, resilient markets

• US Rates: Higher for longer

• Do high gas prices change how Americans buy cars?

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​

• State of the US consumer: The consumer who won't quit

Important Content Disclosures

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.