Extrapolating past results to predict future outcomes is typically futile. But what if we could isolate the most statistically relevant historic parallels towards making better forecasts? This week, we discuss the techniques of relevance based prediction and how more robust and successful outlooks can result from their use. Joining us are Megan Czasonis, Head of Portfolio Management Research at State Street Associates, and Michael Metcalfe, Global Head of Macro Strategy, to discuss recently-published research on these new methods used to forecast USD performance and what the current framework says about a dollar outlook over the medium term.

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Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, is back on the podcast for a wide‑ranging discussion, looking back on the main stories of 2025 and ahead to the forces shaping 2026. Ron and host Tim Graf explore whether risks that once loomed large have faded or simply changed form, and how growth, monetary policy, and AI‑led investment may influence markets in 2026. Asset allocation trends, private markets expansion and global currency dynamics feature, before concluding with a view of State Street’s strategic priorities — from AI adoption to digital assets and ETFs.

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The start of the year is always a convenient time to think about consensus risk. Market watchers have all updated their forecasts and published their year ahead pieces. For the first episode of Street Signals in 2026, host Tim Graf, head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, carries on a tradition in going through a few of the most prominent consensus outlooks, mapping them to the message from our proprietary indicators and highlighting opportunities to go with or against the herd.

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