Fed Skips October, December Hike Looms — Treasuries Rally okładka

Fed Skips October, December Hike Looms — Treasuries Rally

Fed Skips October, December Hike Looms — Treasuries Rally

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Central banks are dominating markets again. With the Fed, BoE, and Treasury markets all moving in lockstep, today's signals carry real portfolio implications for the months ahead.

Ninety-four of 100 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.75%–4.00% on October 27–28 — but December is very much live. Persistent inflation keeps pressure on policymakers, and longer-dated yields had already surged to multi-decade highs before retreating nearly 25 basis points as October hike expectations faded.

Across the Atlantic, UK wage growth is accelerating modestly, and labour market data is firming — raising the probability of a Bank of England hike to 4% at its November meeting. The BoE remains a notable policy laggard versus the Fed and ECB. Meanwhile, a pullback in oil prices gave Treasuries a bid today, with yields falling 3–6 basis points across maturities as traders trimmed Fed tightening bets.

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