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Geopolitical Cousins

Geopolitical Cousins

Von: Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic
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 Geopolitical Cousins throws together analysts Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic for some of the most in-depth, off-the-wall geopolitical analysis in the world.Copyright 2026 Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic Persönliche Finanzen Philosophie Sozialwissenschaften Ökonomie
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  • Why Hormuz Matters

    Why Hormuz Matters
    Mar 5 2026

    We brought in Ed Richardson - tanker maven, shipping expert, and one of the sharpest minds on how the world actually moves its oil. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, we break down why insurance isn't really the problem, what Red Sea Part Two looks like, why India might be the most exposed economy on the planet, and whether this is finally the moment the world starts building around the Middle East rather than through it.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (01:02) - Meet Ed Richardson

    (01:26) - Why Hormuz Matters

    (02:47) - Shipping Crisis Era

    (06:36) - Asia Demand Explained

    (08:18) - Flows Stop Prices Spike

    (11:24) - Insurance Myth GPS Spoofing

    (16:11) - Risk Premium Tanker Boom

    (21:21) - Can US Build Tankers

    (23:16) - How To Reopen Confidence

    (27:08) - Red Sea Part Two

    (30:48) - Rethinking Energy Routes

    (35:11) - Oil Types, Geology Limits

    (37:27) - Where To Follow Ed

    (38:41) - Closing Thanks

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    Referenced in the Show:

    Ed's Substack: https://edfin.substack.com/

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    Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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    Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

    Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

    Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

    Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

    Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    39 Min.
  • Thin Ice

    Thin Ice
    Mar 4 2026
    Can't taste, can't smell, half a beer in - Marko puts his best foot forward for today's episode... And somehow it might be one of our best. The lads cover the Iran situation from every angle: why regime collapse is actually scarier than regime change, what a real 1973-style energy crisis looks like if the Strait goes dark, and why nobody - not allies, not neighbors - is rushing to Tehran's rescue. They dive into Trump's escort policy, the rules-based order debate, Ukraine hitting Russian oil infrastructure, and whether any of this even qualifies as a war. There's also some serious time spent debating Dubai - who it actually serves, whether its neutrality holds, and who could rival it as the next real safe haven. Throw in AI wargames going nuclear, Taiwan logic, brain drain, Venezuela as a leverage play, and a World War Z detour, and that's your episode :)--Timestamps:(01:23) - Wisconsin field research(02:22) - Thin ice markets framing(04:38) - Yom Kippur energy shock(07:51) - Regime collapse scenario(12:00) - Iran capabilities and drones(15:46) - Trump shipping insurance rant(26:08) - Allies reactions and Europe(30:05) - Spain politics and energy(31:48) - Combat Operation Wordplay(34:50) - Ukraine Hits Russian Oil(37:11) - Rules Based Order Myth(39:31) - Why No World War(42:00) - Nukes Change Everything(46:51) - How Many Countries Bombed(50:10) - World War Incentives(51:16 AI War Games Go Nuclear(53:19) - Dubai Safe Haven Debate(01:01:57) - UAE Risks And Rivals(01:03:42) - Picking New Safe Havens(01:05:14) - What Makes UAE Hard to Copy(01:08:35) - Neutrality and No Opinions(01:10:50) - Rubio Quote and Exit Ramps(01:13:26) - Israel Tech Debate and Stats(01:18:56) - Regional Hegemon and PR Problem(01:25:05) - Gulf States Need Israel Intel(01:35:26) - World War Z Detour(01:37:05) - Venezuela Leverage and Wrap Up--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    1 Std. und 41 Min.
  • The Iranian Leviathan Loses Its Head

    The Iranian Leviathan Loses Its Head
    Mar 1 2026

    The US and Israel struck Iran. Khamenei is dead. Marco got the biggest break of his career. And yet... the Islamic Republic lives on. The lads spend this episode digging into why this operation is less transformative than Twitter would have you believe.

    History is clear: America doesn't have a great track record of turning regime change into geopolitical wins - Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela... Iran will get a new Supreme Leader, probably a so-called "pragmatist" who was sanctioning protesters six weeks ago, but the operation won't end when Trump decides that it ends. So temper the triumphalism and strap in for another fun episode of "America Intervenes Without Doing the Math Beforehand."

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    Timestamps:

    (01:01) - The Most Important Geopolitical Development This Week

    (02:51) - Seguing Into Iran War

    (04:48) - Regime Change Reality Check

    (10:56) - Decapitation Strike Fallout

    (12:20) - Saudi Angle And Gulf Targets

    (13:50) - Hormuz And Market Shock

    (19:26) - Drone War Asymmetry Risk

    (22:46) - Trump Regime Calibration

    (25:41) - Why Trump Could Do It

    (33:02) - Is Iran A US Threat

    (35:01) - Multipolar Message To World

    (38:58) - Unipolar Limits

    (40:24) - Deterrence Arms Race

    (41:49) - Multipolar 19th Century

    (44:24) - Is It About China

    (47:46) - Strait of Hormuz Signal

    (49:33) - Russia Oil Windfall

    (51:31) - Missiles and Deal Logic

    (53:58) - Eurasian Conflict Crescent

    (55:53) - Iran Civil War Risk

    (01:00:22) - Revolution Timing Debate

    (01:05:17) - Israel Factor in Uprisings

    (01:10:24) - Purim and Perceptions

    (01:12:16) - Ahmadinejad Legacy

    (01:15:44) - Wrap Up and Sign Off

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    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

    --

    Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

    Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

    Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

    Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

    Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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    1 Std. und 16 Min.
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