This story was originally published on HackerNoon at: https://hackernoon.com/the-five-day-delay-test-that-exposes-overfit-trading-strategies.
A real edge decays gently when you lag your entries. An overfit one collapses. Delay every signal by five days and see what's left.
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A real edge decays gently when you lag your entries. An overfit one collapses. Delay every signal by five days and see what's left.

This story was originally published on HackerNoon at: https://hackernoon.com/why-countries-are-cracking-down-on-polymarket-and-kalshi.
Brazil banned prediction markets, joining Argentina and Colombia. A hair dryer on a weather sensor and a $409,000 insider bet show why the model does not hold.
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Brazil has banned prediction markets, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi shutting down nationwide, citing concerns over investor protection and market integrity. The ban is part of a growing trend of countries restricting access to prediction markets, with the US also facing regulatory challenges.

This story was originally published on HackerNoon at: https://hackernoon.com/prediction-market-volume-surges-to-$782-billion-as-sports-trading-takes-off.
Prediction markets hit a record $78.2B in September notional volume. A Q3 2026 preview of trading, billion-dollar deal headlines and sports.
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Prediction markets reached a record $78.2 billion in notional volume in September, doubling from the summer lull. The growth was driven by sports, particularly soccer and the NFL, as well as institutional capital flows and billion-dollar deals.