Global Wheat Market Summary

• Kazakhstan’s wheat flour exports rose 24.5% year on year to 1.376 million tonnes in January-August 2026, with revenue increasing 39.6% to $399.9 million. Afghanistan accounted for nearly 64% of exports. However, a smaller wheat crop, higher rail tariffs and restrictions on Russian wheat imports could raise costs and complicate export targets.
• Russia’s large harvest is being undermined by reduced Black Sea loading capacity, redirecting shipments towards Baltic ports and disrupting trade with traditional buyers such as Egypt, Turkey and Iran. Domestic wheat prices have fallen to an eight-year low. In the United States, weak export demand and rising projected ending stocks are weighing on futures.
• Argentina’s 2026/27 production forecast has risen to 23.8 million tonnes, its second-largest crop, creating opportunities to replace disrupted Black Sea supplies. However, high input costs and logistical bottlenecks could limit exports. Ukraine also faces shipment delays and weak farmer margins, while France’s production estimate has edged lower.
• Import-dependent markets face mounting cost pressures. Brazil is contending with higher fuel and freight expenses, while Turkey’s reduced access to Russian wheat is squeezing milling margins. Pakistan faces irrigation shortages and rising production costs. In contrast, India’s record production outlook and strong public stocks support domestic availability, while favorable weather is improving China’s winter wheat planting prospects.