Global Maize Market Summary

• Ukraine faces severe logistical constraints, including an estimated 8-11 million tonne storage deficit, reduced port capacity and high overland freight costs. Farmgate prices have fallen below government minimums, squeezing producer margins and threatening harvest completion. These pressures could reduce maize planting by as much as 50% in 2027, with farmers potentially shifting towards soybeans and sunflower.
• The United States is providing a major supply buffer through an almost record crop and elevated yields. However, export commitments remain 31% below last year, while weaker inspections, softer prices and reduced managed-fund positions reflect subdued demand. Domestic ethanol demand and policy support offer some relief, but large ending stocks remain a bearish factor.
• Argentina has emerged as the global price leader, with competitive FOB offers supporting record shipment volumes and challenging US export competitiveness. Brazil's record production is being absorbed heavily by domestic feed and ethanol demand, limiting export potential. Weather risks to first-crop planting could also affect the safrinha crop, while weaker Iranian demand has contributed to lower export expectations. In the European Union, a poor maize harvest is driving increased imports from the United States and Argentina.
• China's lower feed consumption outlook, rising stocks and negative import margins are weighing on demand, with sorghum increasingly displacing maize. In India, expanding ethanol mandates are strengthening industrial demand for maize, although higher domestic prices could threaten the economics of ethanol projects and complicate blending targets.