Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil's 2026 coffee crop is forecast by Conab at 67.6 million bags, up 19.6% year on year, driven by a 34.8% increase in Arabica production to 48.21 million bags. However, heavy rainfall has damaged drying conditions, leaving only 10-15% of the crop meeting exchange-grade standards, compared with a historical 30-35%. Exchange-grade premiums have risen to 15 cents per pound over futures. September green coffee shipments increased more than 20% year on year to approximately 3.9 million bags, while domestic consumption is also strengthening and industry stocks have fallen to just four to seven weeks of supply.
• Colombia faces a tighter outlook, with production forecast to fall 15% to 12.65 million bags and exports down 12% to 11.78 million bags. Earthquake-related disruption in major producing regions has added uncertainty, although no significant damage to milling facilities was reported. In Vietnam, Robusta output is expected to rise 6% to a four-year high of 29.4 million bags, while September exports surged 53%. However, disagreements over prices are delaying new-crop sales, and potential El Niño-related drought poses a risk to the 2027/28 harvest.
• Weather remains a concern in Indonesia and Ethiopia. Below-average rainfall in southern Sumatra could affect flowering for Indonesia's next main crop, while deficient rainfall in parts of Ethiopia could reduce bean size and density. These risks may limit quality and future supply even where current harvesting conditions remain favorable.
• The International Coffee Organization forecasts record global production of 183.6 million bags for 2025/26, exceeding consumption and creating the first surplus in five years. ICE Arabica stocks have recovered slightly from a 27-year low, while Robusta inventories have reached a one-year high. Despite this broader bearish supply outlook, December Arabica futures rose 6.5% during the week, trading near 316 cents per pound. Overall sentiment remains neutral to cautiously bullish in the near term, as immediate Arabica quality shortages and regional supply risks offset expectations of a larger global surplus.