Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil's 2026 production estimate has been raised to 67.6 million bags by CONAB, including a 34.8% increase in Arabica output to 48.21 million bags. USDA FAS and StoneX project an even larger crop of up to 77.2 million bags. Green coffee exports rose more than 20% year on year in September, although limited exchange-grade quality is supporting market premiums. High fertilizer costs are also squeezing producer margins and limiting investment.
• Colombia remains a source of support for Arabica prices, with production down 15% to 12.65 million bags and exports declining 12% year on year. In Vietnam, robusta exports surged 53% in September, although lower average prices reduced export value. Firm farm-gate prices, weather risks and expectations of lower production in the next season could constrain future supply.
• Indonesia faces insufficient rainfall in southern Sumatra, threatening flowering and next year's harvest. In Ethiopia, inadequate rainfall and above-normal temperatures could affect coffee cherry quality and export volumes as harvesting begins.
• Globally, coffee production is projected to reach record levels, with a surplus expected for the first time in five years. Despite regional supply risks and price premiums for quality beans, the broader market sentiment remains cautiously bearish. Production estimates, export flows, weather conditions and futures positioning will remain key drivers of price direction.