Global Canola Market Summary

• Canada’s 2026/27 crop is estimated at 22.1 million tonnes, although some analysts believe output may be overstated by up to 1 million tonnes. Higher ending stocks and exports projected 14% below last year are weighing on the market, while stronger domestic crushing demand offers support. Harvesting is nearly complete in Manitoba but progressing more slowly in Alberta.
• Australia is forecasting a record 8.1-million-tonne crop, with exports also expected to reach new highs. Chinese demand is supporting trade, partly due to favorable tariff differences compared with Canadian supplies, although port congestion could delay shipments. Dry conditions in eastern Australia contrast with more favorable growing conditions in the west.
• In the United States, strong crushing activity and rising biofuel demand are supporting canola oil consumption, while potentially lower production could tighten domestic supplies. Ukraine faces export and logistics challenges, while Russia is expanding rapeseed acreage but remains constrained by processing capacity and Chinese trade restrictions.
• The European Union’s tight supplies and firm demand are supporting physical rapeseed prices despite reduced imports and inland transport difficulties. Meanwhile, India’s mustard sowing faces relatively low weather-related risks, supporting a stable production outlook.
• Overall, the market is being shaped less by headline crop size alone and more by export competitiveness, tariffs, processing demand and logistics. Record production prospects are balanced against regional supply constraints and growing demand for vegetable oils and biofuels.