10Y Below 5%: Safe-Haven Surge as AI Selloff Hits Markets okładka

10Y Below 5%: Safe-Haven Surge as AI Selloff Hits Markets

10Y Below 5%: Safe-Haven Surge as AI Selloff Hits Markets

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Global markets are flashing warning signs. A confluence of AI-driven equity losses, French bond stress, and Middle East tensions triggered one of the most significant safe-haven moves of 2026 — and every fixed-income portfolio manager needs to understand what just happened.

U.S. Treasuries surged on October 22nd, with shorter-maturity yields dropping as much as 20 basis points in a single session. The 10-year yield fell below 5% for the first time in a month — its largest one-day decline since August 2024. Meanwhile, the dollar's slide took a breather as markets braced for a critical week of central bank decisions: the Fed is expected to hold at 3.75%–4%, with a December hike still in play, while the ECB is forecast to hold at 2.5%.

Across the Atlantic, sterling proved the standout performer, rising to $1.34 as UK inflation surprised to the upside. Money markets now price at least three Bank of England hikes by April. French bond yields hit 24-year highs — a stark contrast to flat UK gilts.

Subscribe to Hedgebra for daily institutional-grade market intelligence. Follow Gianluca Sidoti on LinkedIn and visit hedgebra.com for research and insights.
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