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The Fourth Turning Is Here

What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End

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The Fourth Turning Is Here

De : Neil Howe
Lu par : Neil Howe
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À propos de ce titre
 The visionary behind the bestselling phenomenon The Fourth Turning looks once again to America’s past to predict our future in this “riveting and revelatory” (Tony Robbins) prophecy for how our present era of unrest will resolve over the next ten years—and what our lives will look like afterward.

Thirty years ago, Neil Howe and the late William Strauss dazzled the world with a provocative new theory of American history. Looking back at the last 500 years, they’d uncovered a distinct pattern: modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting roughly eighty to one hundred years, the length of a long human life, with each cycle composed of four eras—or “turnings”—that always arrive in the same order and each last about twenty years. The last of these eras—the fourth turning—was always the most perilous, a period of civic upheaval and national mobilization as traumatic and transformative as the New Deal and World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution.

Now, right on schedule, our own fourth turning has arrived…and Neil Howe has returned with an extraordinary new prediction. What we see all around us—the polarization, the growing threat of civil conflict and global war—will culminate by the early 2030s in a climax that poses great danger and yet also holds great promise, perhaps even bringing on America’s next golden age. Every generation alive today will play a vital role in determining how this crisis is resolved, for good or ill.

“Big history and bold futurology” (The Wall Street Journal), The Fourth Turning Is Here takes us deep into the collective personality of each living generation to make sense of our current crisis. explore how all of us will be differently affected by the political, social, and economic challenges we’ll face in the decade to come, and reveal how our country, our communities, and our families can best prepare to meet these challenges ahead. Nord-, Mittel- & Südamerika Politik & Regierungen

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Avis de la critique

“There is always profit in reading prophets…. The Fourth Turning Is Here is big history and bold futurology.”
—The Wall Street Journal
“Riveting and revelatory.... A road map to a future that's challenging yet also full of hope.”
—Tony Robbins, New York Times bestselling author of Life Force
“The most difficult thing in the world is to see history as we are living it, and no one does that with clearer eyes and a fuller heart than Neil Howe. The Fourth Turning is Here is a tour de force.”
—Ben Hunt, creator of Epsilon Theory
“Neil Howe always sees things about America that other observers miss, harnessing a remarkable command of history and demography to help us think more clearly about current problems and summoning a remarkable imagination to help us envision the big changes ahead.”
—Nicholas Eberstadt, political economist at the American Enterprise Institute
“Driven by a deep sense that American democracy is at serious risk… [yet Howe predicts that] out of today’s polarization and partisanship will come a new egalitarian, outward-facing, confident and unified America.”
—Francis Fukuyama, The New York Times
“A vitally important book.”
—Michael J. Meese, PHD, brigadier general, US Army (retired)
“Neil Howe is a genuis at mapping the present and future. This book explains how we arrived at today's era of crises, polarization, and conflicts. Fortunately, Howe also shows us the promised land that awaits on the other side.”
—Jack A. Goldstone, Professor of Public Policy, George Mason Univeristy
“Arresting, mind-opening, and endlessly stimulating, The Fourth Turning Is Here is a monumental achievement. It's a big, complex, challenging book, daunting in its sweep and erudition, but well worth the effort.”
—Amy Chua, Yale Law Professor and New York Times bestselling author of Political Tribes
“The riveting follow-up to The Fourth Turning…. All readers should enjoy this wild ride by an entertaining writer who seems to have read every relevant source. A fascinating work of global history and look to the future.”
—Kirkus Reviews (starred review)
“Far-ranging [and] intriguing.”
—Publishers Weekly
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I listened to the whole 20 hours and I can solemnly swear, it's excruciating boring. With always the same intonation Howe - who actually has a pleasant voice - reads (or more accurately sprints) through his never ending litanies of names, year dates and historical events while cherrypicking all the ones that fit with the current cycle narrative. In 80% of the book he talks about what was and in the remaining 20% he conjures up his "foresight" on poorly justified arguments. In my view a total waste of time.

Excruciating boring

Une erreur s'est produite. Veuillez réessayer dans quelques minutes.