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Superforecasting Hörbuch

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

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Inhaltsangabe

From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio.

Download the accompanying reference guide.

©2015 Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc. (P)2015 Audible, Inc.

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Sprecher
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  •  
    Bim Bam Bino 30.11.2016
    Bim Bam Bino 30.11.2016
    Bewertungen
    Rezensionen
    3
    2
    Gesamt
    Sprecher
    Geschichte
    "It was good. Thanks!"

    I liked the optimistic and pragmatic attitude of the author, although I am a forecasting sceptic. Good contribution! Thanks!

    0 von 0 Hörern fanden diese Rezension hilfreich
  •  
    Marc Dierckx 15.03.2016
    Marc Dierckx 15.03.2016

    Strides towards the omega point

    Mal mit
    „hilfreich“
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    27
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    46
    45
    Mir folgen
    Ich folge
    1
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    Gesamt
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    Geschichte
    "peek with open mind and eyes into the future"

    If you have never heard before about the good judgement project, this book is really a good read. It is the story on how inquisitiveness and an open mind void of biases allows every person to get the foresight. If these qualities are combined with the right portion of obsessive behaviour, superforecasters with impressive Brier scores come to the stage. Apart from the "howto" part, the book also contains interesting "faits divers": you knew that there are forecasting competitions, what the essence of the wisdom of the crowds was and that these methods are extensively used in intelligence gathering. The book also has some guest appearences: Daniel Kahneman to enumerate the biases in the human mind and Nasim Taleb as a Deus ex machina destroying some of the superforecasting efforts with his black swans. On the whole a good mix, narrated in a good Audible production.

    1 von 2 Hörern fanden diese Rezension hilfreich

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