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Fooled by Randomness Hörbuch

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

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Inhaltsangabe

This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.

Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill, the world of trading, this audiobook is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. In an entertaining narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. Taleb uses stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is.

The audiobook is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend; Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the ancient world's wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life, but who also falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

But the most recognizable character remains unnamed, the lucky fool in the right place at the right time - the embodiment of the "Survival of the Least Fit". Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained through chance.

It may be impossible to guard against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after listening to Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

©2004 Nassim Nicholas Taleb; (P)2008 Gildan Media Corp

Kritikerstimmen

"[Taleb is] Wall Street's principal dissident....[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church." (Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker)
"An articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider." (Amazon.com)

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    Marc Dierckx 03.09.2015
    Marc Dierckx 03.09.2015

    Strides towards the omega point

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    "This is not any longer"

    I am really a fan of Nicholas Taleb's proofs that induction is a flaw and the future cannot be predicted, but after my third book of Nasim Taleb I really got the impression that there is a pattern in his theories and I am looking forward for the black swan to unravel my theory about the theories in the fourth sequel to come. In spite of the critique: I really enjoyed and also the third book made me utter "of course, you stupid idiot". By which I certainly did not ment Nasim Taleb, but confirmed his theory : "we are indeed always fooled by randomness"

    2 von 3 Hörern fanden diese Rezension hilfreich
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    Leonhard 07.05.2016
    Leonhard 07.05.2016
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    "Great work from one of the most thoughtful authors of our time"

    I like this book because it reminds me (also working in the finance/risk industry) not to foolishly trust our models. Being skeptical towards forecasters, data miners, pattern searchers, simplifiers, explainers, ... is probably advisable in our world.

    Black Swan was the first book I read. Then came Antifragile. Now one of his first pieces. All three are must reads. Enjoy getting wiser/more skeptical ;-)

    0 von 0 Hörern fanden diese Rezension hilfreich

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